NAGAPATTINAM: Cyclone Gaja wreaked unprecedented havoc in the delta region of Tamil Nadu in November 2018, plunging thousands into darkness as powerful winds uprooted scores of electric poles along with trees and huts. Nagapattinam district, where the cyclone made landfall, bore the brunt of the storm. Five months later, the cyclone and its aftermath are likely to have an impact on the Lok Sabha polls to the Nagai reserved constituency comprising the Nagapattinam, Kilvelur, Vedaranyam, Tiruvarur, Thiruthuraipoondi, and Nannilam Assembly segments. All the segments barring Nannilam were devastated by the cyclone.
In this context, the State government’s handling of the storm could work in the favour of the ruling AIADMK this time, despite the constituency’s history of favouring CPI. Residents note that as many as eight ministers were despatched to work out of the district after the storm hit, relief was distributed promptly despite initial hiccups and electricity restored at the earliest.
The AIADMK could well be counting on this goodwill as it has confidently fielded a fresher 41-year-old ‘Thazhai’ M Saravanan against three-time MP M Selvarasu of the CPI, which is part of the opposition DMK’s alliance. Saravanan, who speaks boldly though a bit naively, has a background in films while 62-year-old Selvarasu has contested in parliamentary elections six times, winning in 1989, 1996, 1998.
The DMK alliance has an edge in this seat in which the electorate is a mix of farm labourers, farmers and fisherfolk. Out of 13 elections from 1971, the constituency has elected the CPI’s candidate six times and the DMK’s candidate four times. AIADMK has won twice from here, including in 2014, while the Congress won in 1991.
The constituency’s bond with the CPI is linked to the large Dalit population in the region. Many from the community worked as farm labourers and the CPI played a key role in empowering them and supporting their struggle for fair wages and social equality. The DMK, especially in its early years, did little to engage with these issues. However, in recent years both Dravidian parties have managed to make inroads in the region. Tiruvarur -- which is facing a bypoll necessitated by the death of late DMK chief M Karunanidhi -- is considered a DMK fortress. On the other hand, Nannilam, Nagapattinam and Vedaranyam voted for AIADMK in the 2011 and 2016 assembly polls. Still, if past LS polls are anything to go by, the DMK+Left vote shares could pose a formidable challenge.
In the 2014 parliamentary polls, when the Left went it alone, AIADMK’S K Gopal garnered 4,34,174 votes (46% of polled votes) and won by a margin of 1,06,079 votes. DMK’s AKS Vijayan finished second with 3,280,95 votes (34.8%), and CPI’s G Palanisamy finished third with 90,313 votes. However, in 2009, Vijayan received 3,69,915 votes (48.3%) while Selvarasu of CPI finished second with 3,21,953 votes (42.1%). With the AMMK enjoying pockets of support that could eat into AIADMK votes, if the DMK’s votes transfer to the CPI, based on the alliance between the parties, the ruling party could be in trouble. Worse, the sitting MP K Gopal, rarely seen at events in the constituency, has also proved unpopular.
In this context, the AIADMK’s alliance with the BJP could make an already difficult task, harder as there is a perception that the BJP has neglected the state, especially after Gaja. That Prime Minister Narendra Modi has yet to visit after the disaster is a point of anger for many. Another sticking issue with regards to the BJP is the Centre’s crop insurance scheme. The worst drought in recent memory struck the region in 2016-17 with over a 100 farmers committing suicide or dying of heart attacks. Privatization of delivery of crop insurance has left thousands of farmers struggling, with funds being released in a trickle. Selvarasu has been sensitive to this issue and the opposition to the proposed hydrocarbon project, endearing himself to voters.
Another significant issue that will be on the minds of voters is the frequent arrests of fishermen in Sri Lanka. This concern is felt most in Nagapattinam which is home to harbour providing livelihood to 10,000 fishers, and fish workers. Nagapattinam and Nagore towns constitute the bulk of the constituency. These towns also have the highest concentration of minority communities in the constituency. Saravanan has showed off his linguistic skills while campaigning here and in Vedaranayam, which employs scores of workers from other states, switching effortlessly between English, Hindi, Malayalam and Tamil.
Vedaranyam, where Gaja made landfall, is known for agriculture, horticulture, floriculture, fishing, and salt manufacturing. All these business were hit by the cyclone. While there has been appreciation for the State’s quick relief works, fishers and salt manufacturers are upset at the compensation they have received, saying the amount hardly makes up for the losses they have faced. The ‘meagre’ compensation for trees and crops lost to the storm has also caused resentment.