CHENNAI: With the countdown having begun for Lok Sabha elections 2019, it’s not just the February air that is heating up in the State. Bugles have been blown for the poll-battle to begin. While much of the focus in the last few days was on the Lok Sabha polls, the bypolls for the 21 vacant Assembly constituencies, expected to be held simultaneously, could prove to be a game changer in Tamil Nadu politics. The bypolls would decide whether Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami retains power or the opposition’s DMK leader, MK Stalin can manage to grab it.
A brief look at the numbers of each political party and the statements of some of the MLAs shows that the ruling AIADMK should win just 8 of the 21 seats to comfortably win in case of a floor test in the Assembly. For the DMK-led alliance, it has to sweep all the 21 seats to touch the magic figure of 118 and stake claim to form a government.
The present strength of the ruling AIADMK in the Assembly is 114, excluding the Speaker. It enjoys a comfortable majority in the present house strength of 213 (halfway mark: 107). But if the by-elections are held and the 21 vacancies are filled, the ruling party will need at least three more members to reach the halfway mark of 117 in the house with its full strength of 234 and the Speaker can also vote in case of a tie.
However, three of the AIADMK MLAs, though maintaining a low profile in recent times, were until a few weeks ago, openly displaying their loyalty to rebel leader TTV Dhinakaran. These three MLAs are E A Rathinasabapathi (Aranthangi), A Prabu (Kallakuruchi) and VT Kalaiselvan (Virudhachalam). Two of the other allies, who contested with the AIADMK symbol, Thamimun Ansari (Manithaneya Jananayaka Katchi) and Karunaas (Mukkulathor Pulipadai), had stated their opposition for the AIADMK, allying with the BJP for the Lok Sabha polls.
This means that the ruling party enjoys solid support from only 109 MLAs at present and if it wins eight seats in the bypolls, the ruling regime may sail through a trust vote, negating any impact a rebellion by these five MLAs may cause.
The results of the past elections show that nine of the 21 seats had been AIADMK strongholds - the party had won five or more times in the last seven assembly polls in nine of these 21 seats. Two of these 21 (Pappireddipatti and Ambur) were newly formed constituencies after delimitation in 2009 and the AIADMK had won both these seats in 2011 and 2016. However, much will depend on whether the rebel leader TTV Dhinakaran’s newly formed Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam can eat into the traditional vote bank of AIADMK, and thus indirectly helping the opposition DMK.
For the DMK, except Tiruvarur and Sattur, none of the seats could be described as a stronghold. The rest of the constituencies had swayed between DMK and AIADMK in the past elections. It appears that the AIADMK is more keen on taking up the bypolls for the 21 vacant MLA seats than the DMK. The ruling party, as part of the Lok Sabha poll alliance, has also included the support of allies in the MLA bypolls. On the contrary, DMK leader Stalin said the alliance pact with Congress did not include the seat sharing for the MLA bypolls.