The country knows that the West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Bannerjee is mercurial, simple. straight and tempermental. No one has accused her of being diplomatic. In contrast, Sonia Gandhi is sedate. Complex. Mysterious. She can never be accused of being simple. From what happened after they met last Wednesday to discuss the Presidential candidate, it does not need a seer to guess what must have occured. Obviously, Sonia must have strategically mentioned her fellow Bengali Pranab Mukherjee's name as the first choice of the Congress and Dr Ansari as the second choice. She must have thought that Mamata would have no option but to toe the Congress line since she could not afford the political cost of opposing Pranab Mukherjee’s candidature as a Bengali; nor could she afford to reject Dr Ansari, as that would amount to saying ‘no’ to a Muslim. Clearly, Sonia had disclosed the names in confidence to Mamata only to fix her. But Mamata is not one who would like to be fixed like that.
Within minutes of their meeting, the chief minister disclosed to the media that Pranab Mukherjee was the Congress (read Sonia’s) first choice and Dr Ansari, the second. Mamata said she and Mulayam would discuss the names. A shocked Sonia must have been dismayed at how her astute diplomacy had let her down. She would never have thought that Mamata would make public not only the names but also the order of the choice; Pranab first and Ansari second. In the next one hour, things became worse. Mamata struck an unprecedented deal with Mulayam Singh. The duo shortlisted three names of equal preference: Dr Abdul Kalam, Dr Manmohan Singh and Somnath Chatterjee. The inclusion of Chatterjee was to handle the Bengali sentiment. The mention of Manmohan Singh was sheer mischief, raising suspicions of a strategic deal between Sonia and Mulayam to get rid of Dr Singh and bring in A K Antony. But the real trouble was Kalam’s name. To recall, Mulayam was the first to accept Kalam in 2002 when Atal Behari Vajpayee had proposed his name. The deal between Didi and Mulayam lasted less than a day. The wily Yadav got two mangos with one stone. First, he divided Didi and the UPA almost finally. He made the latter dependent on him entirely and, then increased his bargaining capacity with the UPA by threatening them with Kalam as a possible presidential choice.
Kalam’s name to Sonia, is like a red rag to a bull; for reasons, now, no one would question. It compelled her forthwith to dump Ansari and opt for Pranab who was more acceptable to the allies as well as others. Again, in a contest, Ansari would be no match for Kalam. Even Mulayam would not be able to support Ansari against Kalam. So Didi’s disclosure of Pranab’s name forced Sonia to choose him. The threat of Kalam as a candidate made the choice a fait accompli. Again, the Congress was placed in denial mode even before affirming Pranab’s candidature. It had to strenuously refute that the Prime Minister was being dismissed by Sonia by elevating him as President.
The politically well-informed know how little Sonia Gandhi trusts Pranab Mukherjee. This distrust dates back to the days of Rajiv Gandhi. That Pranab has a mind of his own was evident when, after the assassination of Indira Gandhi, he was clear that he, as the Number Two in the cabinet, should be the Interim Prime Minister as per Constitutional convention established after the demise of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru; when Lal Bahadur Shastry died, his deputy, Gulzarilal Nanda was sworn in as the Interim Prime Minister. But President Giani Zail Singh took the unconventional step of inviting Rajiv Gandhi, who was merely a General Secretary of the Congress Party and not a minister in the cabinet, to become the interim Prime Minister. But Pranab Mukherjee—even though it was for his own benefit—threw the rule book at the Gandhi family, and instantly became persona non grata to Rajiv Gandhi’s family. All Indira loyalists—RK Dhavan, ML Fotedar, and the rest—had become untouchables for the new regime manned by the Arun Singhs, the Captain Sharmas, and the Quattrocchis. Additionally, for committing that sin, Pranab was in the wilderness for almost five years. He was forced to quit the Congress. He started his own party named the Rashtriya Samajwadi Congress. In 1989, after badly hit by the Bofors tornado, Rajiv invited all the oldies of the Indira days, including R K Dhavan and Pranab Mukherjee back in the fold to help him. That was how Pranab came back. Still, the Family did not consider him loyal enough.
If indeed her name was shot down by President Kalam in 2004 for Prime Minister, Sonia Gandhi did not think of Pranab for the office, since she knew that he had a mind of his own, which Dr Manmohan Singh cannot be accused of. This is precisely the reason that she wouldn’t want Pranab as President, if she had that choice. She would rather have someone like Pratibha Patil, a person in the Gandhi family household. But 2012 is unlike 2007 when she had the halo of being Saint Sonia. It is now impossible for her to thrust a subaltern of hers on the country. Her announcement of Pranab’s name for the Presidency is a mere formality. Pranab had announced his own name long back. He had decided to become the President, regardless of her wish. He even spoke of walking on the Rashtrapathi Bhavan lawns. He began silently working with all, the BJP included. Everyone knew that he was not Sonia Gandhi's choice. He was forcing her to choose him. He had made it difficult for her to choose some one else. After, all he was trained under the most wily politician that the country ever produced, Indira Gandhi. He was part of her Emergency-time ‘Gang of Four’. He lived down that infamy by losing the favour of the Family. Apart from his role as Finance Minister during the Emergency he had a deeper than normal association with the Ambanis, but would claim that he was only as close to them as either Indira Gandhi or Rajiv Gandhi was. Pranab was, and is, perhaps, no saint. But certainly, he is no subaltern of Sonia Gandhi. The media says Sonia has outsmarted the Opposition. But it is Pranab who has outsmarted Sonia!