No united Opp-ortunity
NEW DELHI: For the Indian Opposition, there’s no unity in diversity. Post the Karnataka photo-op, when several leaders of Opposition parties put up a show of unity at the swearing-in ceremony of Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy, several theories of Opposition unity to take on the might of the Bharatiya Janata Party in 2019 have been doing the rounds.
Some leaders even went on to say that Karnataka would be the beginning of the end of the BJP as they would fight the next Lok Sabha elections unitedly. While that may be the need of the hour, serious operational challenges remain on the ground.
To begin with, there is no clarity on whether such a grouping would be pre-poll or post poll. Several opposition leaders this paper spoke to acknowledged that there was no national template available at this stage and such pacts would depend upon the situation in the states.For instance, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had suggested a one-on-one strategy, which meant fielding a joint Opposition candidate against each BJP nominee for all the Lok Sabha seats. But the idea did not find favour with most parties as it was considered impractical.
Second, there are inherent contradictions in the Opposition grouping which regional parties are least prepared to resolve. For example, how exactly will the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, arch rivals in UP, work out a seat-sharing plan, and where would the Congress and Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal fit into it?
Ditto for West Bengal, where Mamata’s Trinamool Congress is in direct fight with the Congress and the Left parties, limiting the scope for a seat-sharing arrangements. Though all three parties come together to attack the BJP in parliament, giving up age old animosities on the ground and alienating the party workers is a proposition none of them would like to commit to.
The story is the same in Kerala. The Congress and the CPI-M are part of rival UDF and LDF camps and certainly in no mood to shake hands. The CPI-M has said that any alliance would be state-specific and post election at national level. Even the Congress agrees that any pact will be more workable post poll when actual numbers are available.In Karnataka, Kumaraswamy said the post poll Congress-JD(S) pact will be extended to the Lok Sabha elections, but sources in both parties said it would require a lot of patience on both sides.
Third, who plays the anchor in case the regional parties do decide to come together under one umbrella? The Congress, which thinks it should naturally get that role, is no more a major player in big states such as UP, Bihar, Odisha, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.Fourth, who will be the Prime Ministerial candidate of the Opposition camp in case they come together to counter the Modi persona? Sources in the opposition camp said they would take a call on the issue after the elections, as it could result in bitterness before the polls.
Finally, the Opposition will have to work carefully around the BJP’s dirty tricks department. “The BJP will create confusion and adopt tactic ethical or unethical to divide the opposition but they should stick together,” said political analyst Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay. However, he believes that despite the challenges there is hope. “There has to be bitter bargaining between the Congress and regional parties, especially in states like Odisha and West Bengal, where regional parties are stronger.
In states like Madhya Pradesh, where assembly election is due later this year, the Congress has to be accommodative to the BSP and the Gondwana Party and that can be reciprocated during parliamentary election. It has to be a process of give and take.”
“The attempt by the Opposition should be to replicate the ‘Kairana challenge’ on 543 Lok Sabha seats and putting a single opposition candidate against every BJP candidate is challenging. There will also be concern about ‘spoilers’ who could split the anti-BJP vote and damage the whole exercise,” he said.
Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies said the Congress should be prepared to second fiddle to regional parties as it did in Karnataka. “In states where there are strong regional parties, the Congress needs to play role of a junior ally and it must form an alliance with regional parties to put up a challenge to the BJP. I think the Opposition has realised it is a do-or-die situation for them and the fear of being wiped out will bring them together,” he said.
Sticky issues
- Seat-sharing, in case a pre-poll alliance is forged, could be a big problem area
- Who will play the anchor in case Opposition/ regional parties do come together under one umbrella?
- Will the Congress agree to play a second fiddle? Assertive regional parties like Trinamool Congress may not accept a depleted Congress as leader of any such coalition
- Who will be PM candidate of the Opposition camp in case they come together to counter Narendra Modi’s persona?