SRINAGAR: His predictions help the people plan marriages, schedule road trips, fix air travel dates and even regulate traffic on highways. Sonam Lotus, Director of the metrological department, Kashmir has earned a celebrity status for forecasting weather correctly over the years.
“It is challenging to make correct forecast in summers than winters,” Lotus told The Sunday Standard at the MeT office at Rambagh in uptown Srinagar.
Hailing from Shara village of Ladakh, he is the longest-serving director of the local metrological department and is serving in the post since 2008. Lotus and his men remain busy monitoring the weather with the help of various instruments. Climatological, data archival, historical data, weather and other sections work in synergy to produce weather updates.
For more accuracy, a ‘C’ Band 500-km range-Doppler radar was installed at the MeT office after the devastating 2004 floods which claimed about 300 lives and damaged property worth several crores. “We had predicted heavy rains, but none expected a flood of that nature. It was totally unexpected and unprecedented.”
Such was its impact that the people in the Kashmir Valley included weather forecasts in their daily routine. “I keep the public sensibility in mind. You have to be responsible while giving predictions. You can’t create ‘types’ of predictions. I issue forecasts only after talking to my officials and those at IMD,” said Lotus.
“I get a lot of calls during summers and winters. In summers, the people call to get the weather forecast, so that they can plan marriage functions accordingly. In winters, the people call to plan land and air travel.” Even senior government officials contact him to know weather conditions for planning travel and meetings. It is his weather updates that help the government decide when to restrict movement on the Srinagar-Jammu national highway, the only link road connecting Kashmir with the rest of the country.
“Our weather forecast help saves lives of the people.”
But, he said no weatherman can predict cent per cent correct forecast. “Our short duration forecast for a week or 10 days is near accurate, but the accuracy for the longer duration (say, a fortnight) drops.”
According to him, work is challenging from April to August due to the highly unstable weather system. “In winters, the prediction is easier because the weather system is well defined.”
Incidentally, snow and rainfall this month are highest ever in more than three decades. Lotus claimed that his weather predictions are more accurate than those available online. “We have got more resources and technology for accurate predictions,” he said. “My responsibility has increased over the years. I issue weather forecasts keeping in mind the welfare of the people and to make their lives safe and secure.”