LUCKNOW: In the run-up to 2019 polls, Uttar Pradesh is witnessing a realignment of political forces, especially after Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Shivpal Yadav announced the formation of his own party, Samajwadi Secular Morcha, and Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad aka ‘Ravan’ was released from Saharanpur jail.
This realignment could divide SP’s and BSP’s vote banks, thus helping the BJP by default.
While Shivpal is gearing up to float his own party in October, Azad’s increasing proximity to the Congress subsequent to his release is driving the others to redefine their strategies for 2019.
Added to the changing equations is Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati’s open aversion to having a truck with Azad. She even dumped Congress in poll-bound Chhattisgarh.
Starting with Shivpal, his falling apart with nephew Akhilesh Yadav will be a clear advantage to the BJP. While he has expressed his electoral ambition by announcing to contest all 80 seats in 2019, the SP leadership is accusing him of playing into the hands of the saffron party.
They believe the BJP will cash in on Shivpal’s rift with the family and the Samajwadi Party. “They will get a chance to deride SP-BSP alliance,” said a senior SP leader.
On the other hand, first leader Azad met after being released from Saharanpur jail last week was state Congress vice-president Imran Masood. Though he made overtures towards the BSP by calling Mayawati ‘bua (aunt)’ and praising her efforts for Dalit emancipation, he got a rude rebuff from the former chief minister, who she could not be associated with anyone who was jailed for violence, rioting and anti-social activities.
In a snub to the Congress, Mayawati equated it with the BJP, calling them “birds of the same feather”, and slammed the BJP government for continuing with the wrong policies of the Congress”. She also sent across a terse message that she would join the alliance only if the BSP got a respectable number of seats to contest in 2019.
Mayawati’s annoyance could be attributed to the increasing bonhomie between Azad and the Congress party and their call for Dalit-Mulsim unity. In fact, if Azad warms up to the Congress further, advocating Dalit-Muslim combine as the need of the hour, it could come as a morale booster for the grand old party which has been reduced to being a minor player in UP.
The SP and the BSP leadership have been cold-shouldering it of late by refraining from backing Rahul Gandhi-led Bharat Bandh recently. The backing of Azad, who is believed to have considerable influence among sections of Dalit youths, could give the Congress better bargaining power in seat-sharing if the grand alliance takes shape in UP.
In fact, Azad emergence as a formidable force aggressively pitching Dalit-Muslim equation in western UP could be bad news for the SP and the BSP. The two communities make a respectable chunk of voters in the region which accounts for 25-28 Lok Sabha seats. Also, Dalit-Muslim unity may shake the voting base of both the BSP and the SP, respectively, while at the same time polarising the upper caste in BJP’s favour yet again.