In his 92-minute long Independence-Day speech from the ramparts of the Red Fort, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed “concern” over an issue, not many believe should actually be a concern anymore: population explosion.Though the PM stopped short of announcing a state intervention to contain what he believes is a “problem”, his statement has given rise to strong speculations and buzz that a population policy—probably in the form of incentives and disincentives – is indeed on the cards.
And that speculation is not unfounded. Senior functionaries in the Niti Aayog, the government’s main think tank, and the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare have confirmed to the SS that “a national policy on family planning is likely” and the Aayog is set to hold meetings with the PMO officials on this in coming days.
The status now
The government’s new found interest however has given rise to multiple questions.
Does India genuinely need to worry about its population growth trajectory? Has the demographic dividend the country been reaping suddenly turned into a burden? If yes, what can be the possible interventions? How have been the experiences from the previous population control programmes and how relevant are those in today’s India? How will any state intervention eventually affect family structure and gender rights?
Demography and population experts are almost unanimous in pointing out that India has already started experiencing a slowing down in population growth, a decline in fertility rate and an increasing average lifespan with an increase in the working age population.Data too supports this. Even though, the country at present has a population size of 1.37 billion—second only to China, as per the National Family Health Survey figures the Total Fertility Rate in India has decreased from 3.4 in 1992-93 to 2.2 in 2015-16.
Statistics show that states like Bihar (TFR 3.4), Meghalaya (3), Nagaland (2.7), UP(2.7), Manipur (2.6) and Jharkhand (2.6 have higher TFR than national average against states like Sikkim (1.2), Kerala (1.6), Punjab (1.6), Tripura (1.7) and Tamil Nadu (1.7).Twenty-four states have already reached the replacement level of TFR 2.1 by focusing on improved development infrastructure and access to services.
“The current situation indicates that India is undergoing the process of fertility transition, marked by irrefutable evidence of substantial fertility decline at all levels,” says Poonam Muttreja, executive director of the Population Foundation of India.Also, there is no evidence whatsoever to show that larger family sizes are due to reasons other than those determined by social and economic circumstances including poverty, lack of basic services and governance.
Counterproductive
There is no evidence on the effectiveness of schemes such as two-child policy, experts say. Similar policies in few states, such as Bihar, have failed to bring down the fertility rates to the desired level.
A five-state study titled “Law of Two-Child Norm in Panchayats – Implications, Consequences and Experiences”, by former IAS officer Nirmala Buch in 2005 had found that there was a rise in sex-selective and unsafe abortions after these rules were announced.
“Men divorced their wives to run for local body elections, and families gave up children for adoption to avoid disqualification,” the study noted.
Countries like China that enforced one-child policy had to abort the policy, having found itself in the midst of a population crisis.
In neighbouring Sri Lanka, fertility rates were stabilised by simply increasing the age at marriage, a move that was made more effective by ensuring girls were educated. With increased access to education, economic and other development opportunities, fertility decline is the natural demographic phenomenon.
“In my view, Narendra Modi government’s Beti Bachao Beti Padhao programme is the best population control programme,” stresses Muttreja. “An educated and empowered woman can make the best choices for herself and the family.”She adds that a combination of factors, including higher levels of female education, greater employment opportunities and access to a bigger basket of contraceptive choices are primary drivers to achieve population stabilisation.
“Then there is rights perspective to the whole debate,” says a senior programme director at Population Services International. Also if there has to be some government action, it should be state-specific, he emphasises.
Even before PM’s call to raise awareness around population explosion on August 15, there have been some recent discussions pressing for stringent population control measures, the latest in the series being a private members bill introduced in the Rajya Sabha by BJP MP Rakesh Sinha.
Placed in the house just last month, the bill called for certain punitive measures for people with more than two living children, including disqualification from contesting elections and denying government subsidies, benefits and entitlements.
The bill also called upon the government to undertake wide distribution of spacing contraceptives; generate public awareness on the benefits of birth spacing and encourage inter-spousal communication and male participation in family planning.
As per the NHFS-4, whereas 36 per cent of married women, aged 14-49 years had undergone female sterilisation, the corresponding proportion among men was 0.3%. Similarly, only 5.6% of such women reported the use of male condoms.
Burdened by the sole responsibility of contraception, women are increasingly resorting to unsafe abortion which has emerged as a proxy for contraception.
According to a 2015 study by New York-based Guttmacher Institute, close to 15.6 million abortions take place in India every year – a staggering number when juxtaposed against roughly 26 million children who are born every year.“It’s issues like equity in use of contraception that should be pushed,” says Dutta.
Then there is very problematic notion that Muslims have large families even though evidence suggests that its only social and economic determinants that are linked with fertile rate in communities.
In fact the decline in the TFR has been sharper among Muslims than among Hindus over the last three decades.
For instance, the decline in decadal growth rate during the last two census exercises (2001 and 2011) was 4.7 percentage points for Muslims as against 3.1 for Hindus during the same period.
“So the perceptions that Muslims have bigger families that are often used as political rhetoric without any logical or statistical evidence,” says Sayeed Unisha, head of the department of Mathematical Demography and Statistics at the Mumbai based International Institute for Population Sciences.
“In fact, TFR for both Hindu and Muslims in Kerala is lesser than the two communities in UP and that gives a clear enough message.”
The current situation indicates that India is undergoing the process of fertility transition, marked by irrefutable evidence of substantial fertility decline at all levels Poonam Muttreja, executive director, Population Foundation of India
Why should a state decide how many children a couple have? It did not work in China and it will not work anywhere else A senior programme director, Population Services International
Though I do not agree with the punitive action part, I do believe that onus of family planning should not lie solely on women which is currently the case in India Evangeline Dutta, public health consultant