It's the $6 trillion question: how to jolt Japan outof its 20-year economic slump.
The dozen or so parties vying in a Dec. 16 parliamentaryelection all agree the world's third-largest economy needs a jump-start, nowthat it has slid back into recession for the fifth time in 15 years.
They are at odds, however, over how to achieve enduringgrowth.
Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is poised to head thegovernment again if his Liberal Democratic Party does as well most polls areforecasting, favors forcing the central bank to do whatever it takes to meet aninflation target, of perhaps 2 percent, to break the economy out of a spiral offalling prices known as deflation.
Many economists agree.
More than 20 years after its "miracle economy" bubbleburst, Japan seems trapped in a vicious circle of sinking prices and weakdemand as sluggish growth forces businesses to slash prices and frugal-mindedconsumers put off spending.
Creating the expectation that costs of big-ticket purchasessuch as housing or cars will rise due to inflation could help prod people intospending more, said Tony Nash, managing director at IHS Global Insight inSingapore.
"When people are uncertain, they hold cash," hesaid. "By stimulating inflation a bit, what Abe's trying to do is to pushthose purchasing decisions to now."
After a strong start to the year, Japan's recovery from itsMarch 2011 earthquake and tsunami disasters fizzled as crisis-stricken Europelost its appetite for Japanese exports of cars and electronics components.Exports took another hit as a territorial dispute over East China Sea islandsset off anti-Japanese protests in China.
Meanwhile, domestic demand faltered, as the anticipatedboost from reconstruction following the 2011 disasters fell short of expectations.
The Japanese are weighing many tough choices, includingwhether or not to phase out nuclear power following meltdowns at the FukushimaDai-Ichi power plant which was crippled by the tsunami that devastated much ofthe northeastern coast.
But the biggest concern for many voters is getting growthback on track.
Revised data this week show the economy has slipped backinto recession. Growth in the April-June quarter was revised to a contractionof 0.03 percent. The economy shrank 0.9 percent in July-September from theprevious quarter and likely is still contracting, economists say.
"The economy has to be the top priority. It's alsolinked to the territorial problems and nuclear energy. They're all tiedtogether," Masahiro Ikeda, a 65-year-old barber, said from his small shopin the western Tokyo suburb of Fuchu.
The election winner will provide Japan's seventh primeminister in seven years, though even the front-runner, Abe, is not expected togain a strong majority. The constant changes in government have stymiedprogress on reforms needed to adapt the tax system, labor laws and otherinstitutions to suit an era of rapid aging and slower growth.
"What the Japanese people want is an effectivegovernment, and they haven't seen one for a while," said Steven Reed, apolitical science professor at Chuo University in Tokyo.
Like the U.S. and other rich economies, Japan faces the hardchoice of either spending its way deeper into debt, which already amounts tomore than 220 percent of its 500 trillion yen ($6.1 trillion) GDP, or slashingspending and seeing the economy falter further.
Abe, who resigned as prime minister in 2007 after just ayear in office due to health problems he says are now under control, wants theBank of Japan to do more to spur growth. And he accuses Prime MinisterYoshihiko Noda of failing to spend enough on public works.
Noda's Democratic Party of Japan took power three years agopledging to end wasteful spending and the cozy ties between politicians andbureaucrats that dominated LDP politics during its decades in power after WorldWar II.
But the March 2011 disasters compounded the challenges ofmaking such fundamental changes, and Noda was obliged to call elections inexchange for gaining passage in June of a highly unpopular sales tax increase.
Both parties are "tinkering at the margins," saidDavid Rea, an economist at Capital Economics in London.
"The LDP seems like they're saying, 'Let's go back tothe good old days,'" Rea said, by spending heavily on construction.
During Japan's decades of fast growth, massive investmentsin public works helped to redistribute wealth generated by its export sector toother, less competitive areas of the economy, and from the cities to the lessaffluent countryside.
The Liberal Democrats acted as the conduit, rewarding theconstruction sector and other bastions of support with massive pork-barrelspending.
Spending on public works might work in the short run, butgiven Japan's shrinking workforce and soaring social welfare and health costs,it is unsustainable in the long term, said Masahiro Matsumura, a professor atSt. Andrews University in Osaka.
"We cannot afford to spend everywhere, so thegovernment has to decide on a more effective approach," Matsumura said."Investments that don't lead to improved efficiency will be wasted."
Reflecting such concerns, a $10.7 billion stimulus packageannounced late last month targeted spending on key sectors of the economy suchas renewable energy and small and medium-sized companies.
Many economists argue the only thing Japan can afford lessthan higher debt is austerity. But while its bond market remains a "safehaven" for global investors and it is not facing the sort of repaymentcrisis that is plaguing Greece and other European economies, there are limits,said Rea.
"It is crucial that they put the economy on a moresustainable path," Rea said. "They are hugely indebted and payingmore and more on refinancing a debt that will continue to go up."
Ikeda, whose son is working with him in his barber shop, ismore concerned for his two children than for himself.
"My son isn't married. Salaries are low, so it's hardfor him to get married or have a family or buy a home," he said.
"I wish he could just have a normal job and life,nothing fancy. But it's gotten difficult for that to happen in modern Japanesesociety."