The White House has put special operationsstrike forces on standby and moved drones into the skies above Africa, ready tostrike militant targets from Libya to Mali — if investigators can find theal-Qaida-linked group responsible for the death of the U.S. ambassador andthree other Americans in Libya.
But officials say the administration, with weeks until thepresidential election, is weighing whether the short-term payoff of exactingretribution on al-Qaida is worth the risk that such strikes could elevate thegroup's profile in the region, alienate governments the U.S. needs to fight itin the future and do little to slow the growing terror threat in North Africa.
Details on the administration's position and on its searchfor a possible target were provided by three current and one formeradministration official, as well as an analyst who was approached by the WhiteHouse for help. All four spoke on condition of anonymity because they were notauthorized to discuss the high-level debates publicly.
The dilemma shows the tension of the White House's need todemonstrate it is responding forcefully to al-Qaida, balanced against itslong-term plans to develop relationships and trust with local governments andbuild a permanent U.S. counterterrorist network in the region.
Vice President Joe Biden pledged in his debate last weekwith Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan to find those responsiblefor the Sept. 11 attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi that killedAmbassador Chris Stevens and three others.
"We will find and bring to justice the men who didthis," Biden said in response to a question about whether intelligencefailures led to lax security around Stevens and the consulate. Referring backto the raid that killed Osama bin Laden last year, Biden said Americancounterterror policy should be, "if you do harm to America, we will trackyou to the gates of hell if need be."
The White House declined to comment on the debate over howbest to respond to the Benghazi attack.
The attack has become an issue in the U.S. election season,with Republicans accusing the Obama administration of being slow to label theassault an act of terrorism early on, and slow to strike back at thoseresponsible.
"They are aiming for a small pop, a flash in the pan,so as to be able to say, 'Hey, we're doing something about it,'" saidretired Air Force Lt. Col. Rudy Attalah, the former Africa counterterrorismdirector for the Department of Defense under President George W. Bush.
Attalah noted that in 1998, after the embassy bombing inNairobi, the Clinton administration fired cruise missiles to take out apharmaceutical factory in Sudan that may have been producing chemical weaponsfor al-Qaida.
"It was a way to say, 'Look, we did something,'"he said.
On the subject of developing a special operations unit, U.S.officials received approval from Congress well before the Benghazi attack toreprogram some funding in the budget that could be used for the commandoprogram in Libya. But the details are still being discussed with the Libyansand also must get final approval from Congress, according to the defenseofficial, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized todiscuss the matter publicly.
The initial cost is estimated at about $6.2 million.
The defense official said U.S. leaders have recognized theneed to train Libyan commando forces, but details such as the size, mission andthe composition of the forces are still being finalized.
A Washington-based analyst with extensive experience inAfrica said that administration officials have approached him asking for helpin connecting the dots to Mali, whose northern half fell to al-Qaida-linkedrebels this spring. They wanted to know if he could suggest potential targets,which he says he was not able to do.
"The civilian side is looking into doing something, andis running into a lot of pushback from the military side," the analystsaid. "The resistance that is coming from the military side is because themilitary has both worked in the region and trained in the region. So they aremore realistic."
Islamists in the region are preparing for a reaction fromthe U.S.
"If America hits us, I promise you that we willmultiply the Sept. 11 attack by 10," said Oumar Ould Hamaha, a spokesmanfor the Islamists in northern Mali, while denying that his group or al-Qaidafighters based in Mali played a role in the Benghazi attack.
Finding the militants who overwhelmed a small security forceat the consulate isn't going to be easy.
The key suspects are members of the Libyan militia groupAnsar al-Shariah. The group has denied responsibility, but eyewitnesses sawAnsar fighters at the consulate, and U.S. intelligence intercepted phone callsafter the attack from Ansar fighters to leaders of al-Qaida in the IslamicMaghreb, or AQIM, bragging about it. The affiliate's leaders are known to bemostly in northern Mali, where they have seized a territory as large as Texasfollowing a coup in the country's capital.
But U.S. investigators have only loosely linked "one ortwo names" to the attack, and they lack proof that it was planned ahead oftime, or that the local fighters had any help from the larger al-Qaidaaffiliate, officials say.
If that proof is found, the White House must decide whetherto ask Libyan security forces to arrest the suspects with an eye to extraditingthem to the U.S. for trial, or to simply target the suspects with U.S. covertaction.
U.S. officials say covert action is more likely. The FBIcouldn't gain access to the consulate until weeks after the attack, so it isunlikely it will be able to build a strong criminal case. The U.S. is alsoleery of trusting the arrest and questioning of the suspects to the fledglingLibyan security forces and legal system still building after the overthrow ofMoammar Gadhafi in 2011.
The burden of proof for U.S. covert action is far lower, butaction by the CIA or special operations forces still requires a body ofevidence that shows the suspect either took part in the violence or presents a"continuing and persistent, imminent threat" to U.S. targets, currentand former officials said.
"If the people who were targeted were themselvesdirectly complicit in this attack or directly affiliated with a group stronglyimplicated in the attack, then you can make an argument of imminence ofthreat," said Robert Grenier, former director of the CIA'sCounterterrorism Center.
But if the U.S. acts alone to target them in Africa, "it raises all kinds of sovereignty issues ... and makes people veryuncomfortable," said Grenier, who has criticized the CIA's heavy use ofdrones in Pakistan without that government's support.
Even a strike that happens with permission could proveproblematic, especially in Libya or Mali where al-Qaida supporters arecurrently based. Both countries have fragile, interim governments that couldlose popular support if they are seen allowing the U.S. unfettered access tohunt al-Qaida.
The Libyan government is so wary of the U.S. investigationexpanding into unilateral action that it refused requests to arm the drones nowbeing flown over Libya. Libyan officials have complained publicly that theywere unaware of how large the U.S. intelligence presence was in Benghazi untila couple of dozen U.S. officials showed up at the airport after the attack,waiting to be evacuated — roughly twice the number of U.S. staff the Libyansthought were there. A number of those waiting to be evacuated worked for U.S.intelligence, according to two American officials.
In Mali, U.S. officials have urged the government to allowspecial operations trainers to return, to work with Mali's forces to pushal-Qaida out of that country's northern area. AQIM is among the groups thatfilled the power vacuum after a coup by rebellious Malian forces in March. U.S.special operations forces trainers left Mali just days after the coup. Whilesuch trainers have not been invited to return, the U.S. has expanded itsintelligence effort on Mali, focusing satellite and spy flights over thecontested northern region to track and map the militant groups vying forcontrol of the territory, officials say.
In northern Mali, residents in the three largest cities saythey hear the sound of airplanes overhead but can't spot them. That's standardfor drones, which are often invisible to the naked eye, flying several thousandfeet above ground.
Residents say the plane sounds have increased sharply inrecent weeks, following both the attack in Benghazi and the growing calls for amilitary intervention in Mali.
Chabane Arby, a 23-year-old student from Timbuktu, said theplanes make a growling sound overhead. "When they hear them, the Islamistscome out and start shooting into the sky," he said.
Aboubacrine Aidarra, another resident of Timbuktu, said theplanes circle overhead both day and night. "I have a friend who said herecently saw six at one time, circling overhead. ... They are planes that flyat high altitudes. But they make a big sound. "