North Korea aggression could strengthen US-China bond

North Korea's latest outburst of nuclear and military threats has given the U.S. a rare opportunity to build bridges with China and revitalize the Obama administration's flagging policy pivot to Asia.
North Korea aggression could strengthen US-China bond

North Korea's latest outburst of nuclear and militarythreats has given the U.S. a rare opportunity to build bridges with China andrevitalize the Obama administration's flagging policy pivot to Asia.

The architect of the administration's Asia policy describeda subtle change in Chinese thinking as a result of Pyongyang's recent nucleartests, rocket launches and abandonment of the armistice that ended the 1950-53war with South Korea.

Pyongyang has taken similar actions in the past, promptingWashington to increase military readiness in the region to soothe allies SouthKorea and Japan. But in an unusual rebuke this week, Beijing called NorthKorea's moves "regrettable" — amounting to a slap from the country'sstrongest economic and diplomatic supporter.

"They, I think, recognize that the actions that NorthKorea has taken in recent months and years are in fact antithetical to theirown national security interests," former Assistant Secretary of State KurtCampbell told a panel Thursday at the Johns Hopkins School of AdvancedInternational Studies.

"There is a subtle shift in Chinese foreignpolicy" toward North Korea, said Campbell, who retired in February as theadministration's top diplomat in East Asia and the Pacific region. "Ithink that they have succeeded in undermining trust and confidence in Beijing."

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland described"good unity" between the U.S. and China in responding to North Korea."The issue here is to continue to recognize that the threats we share arecommon, and the approaches are more likely to be more effective if we can workwell together," she told reporters Thursday.

For now, the crisis has given new importance to the WhiteHouse's decision to bolster U.S. economic and security in the region that foryears was sidelined as a priority by war and terrorism in the Middle East andNorth Africa.

Much of the policy has centered on China, both instrengthening diplomatic ties and economic trade. But China is an unreliableally and has been suspicious about the U.S. move, which it sees as economiccompetition on its own turf.

North Korea's threats have focused China and the U.S. on aregional security threat instead of an economic rivalry.

"Part of the pivot is to also take a more activeinterest in the security issues in Asia," Sen. Ben Cardin, who chairs acommittee overseeing East Asia, said in an interview this week. "Andclearly, North Korea is the most difficult country and one that representssecurity issues for the countries in Asia, as well as indirectly affects U.S.interests."

North Korea has made an almost daily string of threatstoward the U.S., South Korea and Japan and moved a missile with"considerable range" to its east coast, South Korea's defenseminister said Thursday. But he emphasized that the missile was not capable ofreaching the United States, and officials in Seoul and Washington agree thereare no signs that Pyongyang is preparing for a full-scale conflict.

Last year, North Korea launched two long-range rockets — itclaims they were satellites, but they were widely believed to be missiles — andin February announced it conducted an underground nuclear test. Last month, thecountry declared its 1953 armistice with South Korea void. And this week,Pyongyang said it would restart a shuttered nuclear reactor and increaseproduction of atomic weapons material.

Much of this is seen as an effort to strengthen loyaltyamong citizens and the military for North Korea's young leader, Kim Jong Un.But U.S. and U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang after the February nuclear testfueled tensions and began the unusually high level of threats.

China historically has been lax on enforcing internationalsanctions against the North. But in what the U.S. took as a positivedevelopment, China signed on to stiffer measures in the latest round of U.N.Security Council sanctions, and there are initial indications that it'sincreasing cargo inspections.

North Korea's anger is also a response to annual U.S.-SouthKorean military drills that, intentional or not, antagonize the North. Theongoing drills have shown a conspicuous display of firepower, including flyingU.S. bombers and fighter jets in recent weeks over South Korea and off theKorean peninsula's coast, where a U.S. missile-defense ship has been deployed.

North Korea's military issued a statement saying its troopshave been authorized to counter U.S. "aggression" with "powerfulpractical military counteractions," including nuclear weapons. Expertsdoubt Pyongyang is able to launch nuclear-tipped missiles, although the extentof its nuclear arsenal is unclear.

Patrick Cronin, an Asia expert at the Center for a NewAmerican Security and a senior State Department official during the George W.Bush administration, said Beijing is helping set up back-channel negotiationswith North Korea to ease the tensions.

But ultimately, he said, the U.S. isn't likely to succeed inwinning China over as a reliable partner against North Korea beyond the currentcrisis.

"There is an opportunity for the U.S. and China torenew cooperation on a North Korean strategy," Cronin said. "But wecan't put all of our hopes on that cooperation, because it's been less thansatisfying in the past. There are limits to how far China and the U.S. havecoincidental interests with regard to North Korea. But it's not enough —because, more likely, we're likely to fail."

Asia expert and peace activist Hyun Lee agreed thatWashington will be unlikely to turn Beijing against North Korea in the longrun. But she said China does not want to see an increased U.S. militarypresence in the region, and Beijing certainly doesn't want a war on itsborders.

China "doesn't want to deal with headacheslike the tension between the U.S. and North Korea," said Lee of theWorking Group for Peace and Demilitarization in Asia and the Pacific. "Ithink China is trying to restrain both sides."

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