Raising the spectre of a renewed conflictbetween India and Pakistan over Kashmir, a US study has warned that Islamabadmay well turn to trusted Pakistani militant groups, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba(LeT), to do its bidding.
For the past two decades LeT, the group behind the November 2008 Mumbai terrorattacks that killed 166 people, has steadily emerged as one of Pakistan's mostlethal and capable militant proxy groups, according to the study.
Titled "The Fighters of Lashkar-e-Taiba: Recruitment, Training, Deploymentand Death," the 61-page report by the Combating Terrorism Centre at the USMilitary Academy in West Point, New York is primarily focused on LeT and itsintegration into Pakistani society.
Once the primary battleground for jihad in South Asia, "over the lastdecade the fight in Kashmir just hasn't been as relevant for jihadistactors" with US and international troops in Afghanistan providing "avisible and seductive target" for militant groups, it said.
It was difficult to predict the directional priorities of Pakistan-basedmilitant groups after the US reduces its role in Afghanistan, especially inlight of the internal security challenges faced by Pakistan and the state's ownshifting threat priorities, the report said.
But "historical precedent suggests that some of these militant groups willreorient to and invest more broadly in the conflict in Kashmir," said thestudy.
"The series of skirmishes between Pakistani and Indian forces along theLine of Control in Kashmir in January have brought the potential for renewedconflict in Kashmir into sharp relief," said the report wondering"whether this incident was isolated or a harbinger of more violence tocome" between the two neighbours.
"Should elements of Pakistan's security establishment view it in theirinterest to spoil peace or reignite conflict in the region... they will likelyturn to trusted Pakistani militant groups, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), to dotheir bidding," the report warned.
This could be due "potentially to serve as a release valve for domesticchallenges or to redirect the actions of militants actively waging war againstIslamabad," it said.
"While the group has historically been used by Islamabad as an agent ofregional foreign policy ... a steady array of incidents tied to the group overthe last decade strongly suggest that LeT's interests are evolving and that itsoperations in the future might be less constrained," the report said.
The Mumbai terrorist attacks left "some to question whether Mumbai was anoutlier or a sign of a broader strategic or ideological shift taking place withinthe group, with more, similar international attacks to come," the reportsaid.
Western counterterrorism investigators have been particularly troubled by LeT'srecent attack history, its links to several international terror plots, thegroup's transnational footprint, the accessibility of its infrastructure inPakistan and the two-decade-long spillover associated with its training camps,it said.
The group's active recruitment of US and European citizens and the discovery ofa number of LeT operatives and cells based in both places, the report said,"have led some researchers to conclude that a threat to the US homeland bythis organization (or an associated splinter group or LeT-trained element) canno longer be ruled out."
"Even if this is not the case and the group maintains a more limitedoperational focus on Kashmir and India in the years to come, its attack onMumbai raises the spectre that future attacks orchestrated by the group in thatregion may be more hybrid in nature or international in flavour-helping LeT todraw world media attention to its cause," the report concluded.
The Pakistan government insists that Pakistanis are not engaging in acts ofterrorism in India or elsewhere. But the West Point report suggests that"while few entertain these claims as credible, our database indicates thatthis claim is false."