Dear Mr Trump, Iran won't yield to your bullying

Ever since he pulled America out of the Iran nuclear deal, President Donald Trump has been applying what he calls “maximum pressure” on Iran.
An Iranian woman holds an effigy of US president Donald Trump, during a rally marking the 40th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, in Tehran, Iran. (File photo | AP)
An Iranian woman holds an effigy of US president Donald Trump, during a rally marking the 40th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, in Tehran, Iran. (File photo | AP)

Amid rising tensions with Iran, the US is deploying an additional 1,000 troops to the Persian Gulf region.

This comes less than a week after two oil tankers caught fire in the Gulf of Oman under circumstances that are still disputed.

As expected, Washington pointed fingers at Tehran, soon after details of the incident went public. Wasting no time, the US military released footage showing what it claims to be members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) removing an unexploded mine from the hull of one of the ships that were ablaze.

One cannot help but accept America’s evidence with a pinch of salt. However, neither is it wise to absolve Iran of any culpability.

After all, sabotaging oil tankers is not uncharacteristic of the Iranian military. Those who have read the history of Iran’s eight-year-long bloody war with Iraq would know about the “Tanker wars”. As per the US count, Iran attacked as many as 160 ships during that conflict which ended in 1988.

Also, the Iranian leadership has, in response to US bullying, time and again threatened to disrupt oil supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, the US lacks credibility, thanks to the 2003 American invasion and occupation of Iraq on a faulty pretext. The world hasn’t forgotten how a bunch of neocons in George W Bush’s administration tenaciously weaved a case for deposing the Iraqi leader based on falsehoods. Today, Iran hawks in the Trump White House, including the National Security Advisor John Bolton, are aware that without a solid reason, the war-weary US public would not condone a clash with Iran.

Iranians are not fools

Ever since he pulled America out of the JCPOA (the Iran nuclear deal), President Donald Trump has been applying what he calls “maximum pressure” on Iran. The US has rolled out a raft of tougher sanctions in recent months. The aim is to force the Iranian leadership to come to the negotiating table. A weakened Iran would have little diplomatic leverage.

Buoyed by his diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea, Trump thinks the pressure tactic would bend the theocratic regime to his tune.

So far, his strategy has only served to empower Iran’s hardliners.

In this May 8, 2018 file photo President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House. (Photo | AP)
In this May 8, 2018 file photo President Donald Trump shows a signed Presidential Memorandum after delivering a statement on the Iran nuclear deal from the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House. (Photo | AP)

Iran is unlike North Korea. Pyongyang maintains no extensive ties with any country other than China. Iran, in contrast, is an active player in international politics. It has strong ties with many countries, including China and Russia.

Moreover, it is a regional powerhouse. Its influence stretches far beyond its borders, thanks to its loyal proxies.

Also, decision making in Tehran is not concentrated in the hands of one man, like in North Korea. Although Ayatollah Khamenei is the supreme leader and has a final say on all affairs of the state, yet he is surrounded by clerics whose opinions he can’t always ignore. In Iran, unlike in North Korea, there is politics. And clerics play a big role in it.

Therefore, the Islamic Republic has little in common with the hermit kingdom, apart from their shared antipathy towards the US.

Considering the nature of the Iranian regime (anti-Americanism is its source of legitimacy), the more pressure the US applies, the more unyielding it would become.

It is a common fallacy among those in Washington policy circles to assume that sanctions would eventually take a toll on the people, persuading them to rise up and overthrow the regime.

This is foolish thinking. Yes, the sanctions would sooner or later bite the people and agitate them. But Iranians are well educated. They know what’s going on.

Surveys after surveys indicate that most people in Iran don’t have a favourable opinion about the US. In fact, in the entire Middle East region, anti-Americanism has seen a marked rise since the US invasion and occupation of Iraq.

This author, while pursuing his master's degree in London, had the chance to interact with a few politically active Iranian students. Most of them were liberal-minded. While they routinely expressed their disdain for the theocratic regime, they made it clear that they wouldn’t join hands with the US to get rid of it. In other words, Iranians are not “waiting to be liberated” by the might of the American military.

On the contrary, Trump administration's threat of military action would only persuade them to rally behind the regime.

Is Trump deluded?

More than one-third of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, located at the southern tip of the Persian Gulf. Any disturbance in this region would send oil prices skyrocketing. This, in turn, would have a ripple effect on the world economy.

If indeed Iran was behind the latest attack on tankers, one must see its aggression as an outcome of its frustration with constant US bullying. The Trump administrations' efforts to corner Iran has, in fact, even damaged America’s standing in the world. Countries, including India, are dismayed by Washington’s insistence on cutting trade ties with Tehran.

The faster Trump understands that Iran won’t yield to his bullying, the better.

ven if his pressure tactic succeeds in bringing the mullahs to the table, there is no way they would capitulate to his fancies.

In other words, if the US president is hoping that Iran would agree to all his demands unconditionally, then he is deluded and has no clue about the present context of international relations.

In fact, he approached North Korea with a similar attitude. He thought Chairman Kim Jong-un would give him what he wanted (denuclearisation) without asking for anything in return. Today, look where things stand.

His biggest mistake

Making matters worse for Trump, America’s principal allies -- the UK, France, and Germany are not on his side. They have clearly told Washington to “count them out” of a conflict with Iran.

“Every single European government believes that the increased threat we’re seeing from Iran now is a reaction to the United States leaving the Iran nuclear agreement and trying to force Iranian capitulation on other issues,” Kori Schake, a former Pentagon official told the New York Times. 

Looking at where things are right now, it appears killing the nuclear agreement is one of the biggest mistakes President Trump made.

He promised his countrymen a better deal. But for a man who is not known for making compromises, deal-making wouldn’t be his area of strength.

The JCPOA was working well. It would have ensured that Iran wouldn’t build nuclear weapons at least until 2030 when it was set to expire. The US could have utilised that time to cultivate better ties and earn Iran’s trust.

Of course, the Saudi-led Sunni Gulf powers and Israel would strongly oppose a US-Iran rapprochement. In their view, the US should hit Iran hard. However, such a policy would only worsen the persistent sense of insecurity felt in Tehran’s highest echelons of power. A more aggressive Iran would be the consequence.

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