Imran Khan can’t have enough of Kashmir. On October 18, his Pakistan government even observed a Kashmir Day. "Modi is riding a tiger. You don't need 900000 troops to fight terrorism; you need them to terrorise 8m Kashmiri people," he tweeted.
Seven days before that, he said Modi "has played his last card, but the people of Kashmir will never accept it (the scrapping of the special status)".
Before that came the Pakistan Prime Minister's US visit where despite being almost utterly isolated, he remained fiery and gave a 50-minute speech before the UN General Assembly predicting a 'bloodbath' in the Valley once the clampdown announced on August 5 - the day India made its big Kashmir move - is lifted completely.
So, what is Pakistan playing at? Is it all mere bluster or is there a well-thought-out gameplan behind it?
It’s the economy, stupid!
Experts term Imran Khan donning the role of the self-appointed ambassador for Kashmiris' rights as nothing but a diversionary ploy to hide his failure in arresting Pakistan's economic slide.
Brigadier (retd) Rahul Bhonsle, director of the Delhi-based Security Risks Asia, said, "From August 5, Imran has been on the offensive against India on the Article 370 issue. While he approached countries like the US and China, the move can also be seen as an attempt to divert the attention of Pakistani voters from various domestic issues, including the country's poor economic state."
Brigadier Bhonsle also warned that Pakistan might be trying to gain itself diplomatic cover in case another Pulwama happened.
"Imran’s aggressive speech at the UN General Assembly was delivered to ensure that Pakistan is diplomatically covered in case a Pulwama-like terror attack happens again in the Kashmir Valley. While India will be looking to normalise the situation in J&K, Pakistan will try to send terrorists across the LoC to destabilise law and order," he added.
Brigadier Bhonsle underlined that Imran had tried to garner the support of the Islamic world against India on Kashmir but failed. "It was clearly of no avail as except Turkey and Malaysia, no other Islamic country has been supporting him."
He said India’s point-by-point rebuttal of Imran's tirade at the UN General Assembly was impressive.
"India was successful in its response to show that Pakistan has been trying to foster terrorism in other countries. They also rightly called out Imran for using terms like 'bloodbath', while speaking on a prestigious platform like the UNGA. Also, they were equally impressive in pointing out how Imran lacks any moral stand to talk on Kashmir when his own country has a dubious record in protecting its minorities. India was further vindicated as, during the same week, both the International Court of Justice and the US raised questions about the suppression of Balochs and other minorities in Pakistan," he said.
A diversionary tactic
Former Indian Foreign Secretary Lalit Mansingh too agrees that Pakistan is playing the Kashmir card for the reasons it always does - as a diversionary tactic.
"Under Imran's rule, it's the Pakistan Army which has been running the country's economy, which does not speak well for him. His US visit was more of an attempt to impress the Trump administration, whose green signal is needed to get the IMF bailout for a near-bankrupt Pakistan economy. The country's economy was already in a dire situation since last year, when Trump suspended all aid for not doing enough against terrorism. Plus they have been borrowing money from their Middle Eastern allies and China too. Now, at this stage, the fear of FATF blacklisting is also hanging over their heads. So Imran wants to shift the global narrative on Pakistan from its state-sponsored terrorism to the Kashmir issue," he said.
"Imran clearly used the UNGA platform to portray India as an 'Islamophobic' country, while using words like 'bloodbath'. But out of 193 countries, only China, Turkey and Malaysia gave their support to Pakistan on the Article 370 issue. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran and UAE were not on the same page as Imran. His actions such as firing his UN envoy soon after his US trip clearly show his anger and frustration," Mansingh noted.
When it comes to US President Donald Trump’s repeated mediation offers, Mansingh said India should not take them seriously.
"Since 1992, India's stance on Kashmir has been very clear. We do not entertain outside intervention, even from friendly countries, since we are bound by the Shimla Agreement, which Pakistan has also signed. The pact clearly says that all issues between the two countries should be solved through bilateral talks. Trump has this fashion of projecting himself as a mediator in major global crises. India could have been worried if the same offer had come from any other US President. Also, after the Trump-Imran meeting, the US State Department made it clear that its mediation offer can only turn into an option if both countries ask for it. Since both China and the US have already made it clear that Kashmir is India's internal issue and the rift with Pakistan could only be solved through bilateral talks, India is diplomatically safe as of now,” he stresses.
“Also, PM Modi should be credited for his smart diplomacy in the Middle East, which left Pakistan isolated in terms of getting support from the Islamic world," Mr. Mansingh adds.