The National Conference-Congress alliance was slated to do well, but not to win five of the six seats in Jammu and Kashmir. The PDP and BJP were expected to win one seat each. The NC won all three seats in the Valley; the Congress won Jammu’s two seats and lost Ladakh to NC rebel Ghulam Hassan Khan, who may end up supporting the UPA. Before the election both the NC and the Congress claimed the Ladakh seat but the NC later had to withdraw. Apparently a section of the NC, led by party president Farooq Abdullah (against the wishes of Omar Abdullah), encouraged Khan to contest independently. Khan is from Shia-dominated Kargil. He was backed by the Islamia School, a traditional educational institution having strong influence over the Shias.
BJP’s loss of both Hindu-dominated Jammu seats is noteworthy. Voters seem to have buried the ghost of the Amarnath land row as the Amarnath agitation convenor was the BJP candidate for Jammu. The PDP’s loss of Anantnag is significant. Separatist-turned-mainstream-politician Sajjad Lone also lost and finished a poor third. However he faced heavy odds as the separatists did not leave any stone unturned to ensure his defeat. Farooq Abdullah will be a strong contender for a berth in the Cabinet. Ironically, the low turnout in the Valley favoured the NC.
The massive turnout in the 2008 assembly elections punctured the sails of the separatists. The low turnout this time has provided a fresh lease of life to the All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC). The separatists are overjoyed at the turn of events and are boasting a victory. An election in Kashmir is not a simple electoral battle; it is an all-out war. On the one hand political parties scramble to win the favour of the electorate, and on the other, separatists push for a boycott. Turning the democratic exercise into an ideological clash, pro-election and pro-India parties are pitted against anti-election and anti-India forces. An election means disruption of normal life: unprecedented security arrangements and unannounced curfews. In this battle of street and state power the common man is made to suffer endlessly.
Initially the APHC moderate faction tried to stay away from the hardliner’s boycott, led by Syed Ali Shah Geelani. Under pressure from militants and groups across the border, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq’s APHC was forced onto the boycott bandwagon. The APHC’s influence is confined to the Valley alone, as evident from the voting pattern. In Jammu’s two constituencies, 40-45 per cent of the electorate voted, normal in a parliamentary election. Ladakh witnessed a healthy turnout of more than 70 per cent. The boycott call’s impact was more evident in urban/semi-urban pockets of the Valley. Still, a low turnout cannot be described as a total boycott. The overall percentage in the Valley is 30 per cent; the lowest in Srinagar (24 per cent) and the highest in Baramulla (40 per cent). In five assembly segments, the percentage could not reach double digits. In over 20 assembly segments, a moderate 40 per cent to a high voter turnout of 60-65 per cent was recorded. But more than 40 per cent of the 45 assembly segments in Kashmir witnessed a massive drop of 50 per cent, and 19 assembly segments had a drop of more than 50 per cent. A huge drop in participation may indicate voter fatigue with two elections in quick succession. But voter antipathy cannot be completely ruled out. There was some impact of the boycott call, which should worry Omar Abdullah’s government.
Elections in Kashmir are still not over. The Hazratbal Assembly by-election is scheduled for May 30. The election, necessitated by Farooq Abdullah’s election to the Rajya Sabha, was to be held on May 7, along with Srinagar’s parliamentary election. It was deferred under dubious circumstances. A controversy erupted when the returning officer accepted the ruling party’s candidate papers despite having no signed authority letter from the party. Sheikh Mustafa Kamal, the NC candidate, is Farooq’s younger brother. Opposition candidates protested to the Election Commission, which countermanded the poll.
The new poll schedule provided the NC’s candidate chance to file his papers again. But in identical circumstances, the returning officer for Vidisha, Madhya Pradesh, rejected the nomination of Congress nominee Rajkumar Patel on similar grounds. Like Kamal his paperwork was incomplete. Criticising the decision, PDP president Mehbooba Mufti said, “EC’s decision was just a half-action which has now become an injustice to the other contestants… apprehensions about NC-Congress combine repeating the rigging of 1987 elections were coming true”.
It is but natural for the opposition to draw parallels with 1987’s elections, which triggered a violent movement from which the state is still to fully recover. Old habits die hard.
firdoussyed@yahoo.com