The legal international trade in small arms, light weapons, their parts andammunition is worth at least $8.5 billion annually — more than double theprevious estimate in 2006, according to a survey by independent researchersreleased Monday.
The Small Arms Survey 2012 said the increase from the last estimate of $4billion is due to several factors — large-scale government spending especiallyduring the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts, increased purchases of small armsand ammunition from foreign countries by American civilians, and betterinformation and improved methods of calculating the value of transfers.
Eric Berman, managing director of the survey, said at a news conference at U.N.headquarters launching the 367-page report that it took four years to reviewthe government-authorized international trade in small arms and researchers arenow working on a multi-year effort to examine the illicit trade.
"We think the authorized trade is larger than the illicit trade, althoughthe illicit trade may do more damage or be more problematic," he said."So it's not just a question of total value, but I think we can clearlysay that the two combined would be over $10 billion."
The Small Arms Survey, established in 1999, is an independent research projectlocated at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies inGeneva. It is supported by the Swiss Foreign Ministry and contributions fromthe governments of the United States, Australia and eight European countries.
The first survey was published in July 2001 when U.N. member states adopted aplan of action to accelerate national regional and international efforts totackle the illicit trade in small arms and light weapons. It reviewed what wasthen known about supplies of small arms, control efforts, and the effects oftheir use.
The new survey's release was timed to Monday's opening at U.N. headquarters ofthe second conference to review progress in implementing the action plan.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a message to the conference thatmore than half a million people are killed each year by illicit small arms, mainlypoor civilians.
While some progress has been made since 2001 to tackle the problem, he saidthere is still limited cooperation among countries in tracking illicit weapons,"and in many countries, insecure stockpiles continue to be a source ofarms and ammunition for armed groups, terrorists and organized crime."
Last month, the U.N. General Assembly failed to agree on a new U.N. treaty toregulate the global arms trade. Ban urged the 193 U.N. member states to adopt a"robust treaty" as soon as possible, saying it is long overdue and"would definitely make a big difference in addressing the havoc small arms— and other conventional arms and ammunition — are causing."
Berman said the research project leading to the new estimate ofgovernment-authorized international arms transfers included a review of tens ofthousands of records, customs reports and government data. The survey examinedsmall arms in 2009, ammunition in 2010, light weapons in 2011, and parts andaccessories in 2012.
Based on the findings of the four-year study, the survey estimated the annualvalue of the international trade to be at least $8.5 billion — $1.662 billionin small arms, $811 million in light weapons, $1.428 billion in parts, $350million in accessories, and $4.266 billion in ammunition.
Berman said the $8.5 billion figure "is almost certainly anunderestimate" because researchers looking at parts and accessories forweapons only covered sights, not range finders, fire control systems and itemsfor anti-tank guided weapons and shoulder-launched missiles.
One surprise, Berman said, was that ammunition accounts for half the total —"and that underscores how important the aspect of ammunition is ingovernment dealings with arms control issues."
The survey also looked at top exporters and identified 12 countries in 2009that exported at least $100 million in small arms and light weapons, led by theUnited States and including France and Japan for the first time. The U.S., with$1.75 billion, also led the list of seven countries that imported at least $100million.
Researchers also reported their initial findings on the illicit use of smallarms and light weapons in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia.
The survey said one conclusion in all three countries is that armed groups arealmost always using older-generation weapons except for a significantpercentage of Iranian weapons seized from insurgents in Iraq, which weremanufactured relatively recently.
As part of a new effort to look at trends, the survey also examined risinghomicide rates in many Latin America and Caribbean countries.
The global average of firearm homicides is 42 percent, but "firearms wereused in an average of 70 percent of homicides in Central America, in 61 percentin the Caribbean, and in 60 percent in South America," the survey said. Itsingled out El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Venezuela, Brazil,Colombia, Panama and Puerto Rico for high firearm homicide rates.