Indian Economy on Path to Gradual, Uneven Recovery: Morgan Stanley

Published: 29th December 2015 02:53 PM  |   Last Updated: 29th December 2015 02:53 PM   |  A+A-


NEW DELHI: Bank fixed deposit was the best performing asset in India, Morgan Stanley said in a research note, adding that the country is on a path to "gradual and uneven" recovery.

According to the global financial services firm, even as 2015 was a good year for the Indian macro economy, as measured by the four key parameters of GDP growth, inflation, current account balance and fiscal balance, this did not translate into "spectacular returns" for the stock markets.

In sharp contrast to 2014, when equities (BSE 100) gave a 32 per cent return to investors, the returns turned negative this year, down 6.4 per cent.

This is despite the fact that at the same time last year, expectations were high for a strong performance for equities in 2015 on hopes of a reform-oriented government and a V-shaped cyclical recovery in the economy.

Interestingly, bank fixed deposit was the best performing asset in India, outperforming equities, gold and property.

The global brokerage firm further noted that in the short term, macroeconomic fundamentals may not have a positive correlation with market returns.

The year 2015 was good for the Indian macro economy, but this did not translate into "spectacular returns" for the stock markets.

In comparison, almost nothing went right on the macro front in 2012, but it marked a great year with the markets (BSE 100) returning 30 per cent.

"India is on a path to gradual and uneven recovery and just because a calendar year has changed does not mean that reality will change", Morgan Stanley said.

On investment strategies, the brokerage said "one's investing style should be such that one should look for growth inflections that seem durable and look for high-quality stocks within those spaces".

The 30-share benchmark Sensex is currently hovering around the 26,000 level. The index has lost almost 1,500 points since December 31, 2014 when it stood at 27,499 points.

Meanwhile, the government recently lowered its economic growth forecast for 2015-16 to 7-7.5 per cent from 8.1-8.5 per cent


Disclaimer : We respect your thoughts and views! But we need to be judicious while moderating your comments. All the comments will be moderated by the editorial. Abstain from posting comments that are obscene, defamatory or inflammatory, and do not indulge in personal attacks. Try to avoid outside hyperlinks inside the comment. Help us delete comments that do not follow these guidelines.

The views expressed in comments published on are those of the comment writers alone. They do not represent the views or opinions of or its staff, nor do they represent the views or opinions of The New Indian Express Group, or any entity of, or affiliated with, The New Indian Express Group. reserves the right to take any or all comments down at any time.

flipboard facebook twitter whatsapp