NEW DELHI: India's GDP contracted by only 6.6 per cent in 2020-21 as against 7.3 per cent contraction shown in the provisional estimates. According to the first revised estimate of the National Statistical Office (NSO), the real GDP for the years 2020-21 and 2019-20 stands at Rs 135.58 lakh crore and Rs 145.16 lakh crore, respectively, showing a contraction of 6.6 per cent during 2020-21 as compared to growth of 3.7 per cent in 2019-20.
This means the real GDP growth in 2019-20 has also been revised downward from 4 to 3.7 per cent. The real GDP growth in 2018-19 was also revised downward by 7 basis points to 6 per cent. Nominal GDP for the year 2020-21 is estimated at Rs 198.01 lakh crore as against Rs 200.75 lakh crore for the year 2019-20, showing a contraction of 1.4 per cent during 2020-21 as compared to growth of 6.2 per cent during 2019-20.
The real GDP is calculated based on 2011-12 prices of products while nominal GDP is calculated based on current prices of products and services. These revisions could impact the 2021-22 growth estimates.
The Economic Survey report has pegged the real GDP growth at 9.2 per cent based on earlier 2020-21 GDP growth estimates. However, now with a higher base, economists believe the real GDP growth in 2021-22 could be lower than 9 per cent.
"When compared with the revised estimate for FY2021, the First Advance Estimate for GDP for FY2022 implies a lower growth of 8.8 per cent. This is closer to our forecast of the GDP expansion in FY2022, following the mild disruption caused by the third wave," says Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
Nominal GDP at Rs 198 lakh crores
Nominal GDP for 2020-21 is estimated at Rs 198.01 lakh cr as against Rs 200.75 lakh cr for 2019-20, showing a contraction of 1.4 per cent during 2020-21 as compared to growth of 6.2 per cent during 2019-20.