NEW DELHI: India’s GDP growth for the January-March 2022 quarter slowed to 4.1% compared to 5.4% in the year-ago period, data released by the Ministry of Statistics on Tuesday showed. The growth is the slowest in FY22. In the second and first quarters, growth was 8.5% and 20.3%,respectively.
However, the country registered an overall growth of 8.7% for full-year FY22, compared with the contraction of 6.6% in FY21. Chief Economic Advisor Venkatraman Anantha Nageswaran blamed Omicron for the tepid growth, saying several sectors such as hospitality, tourism, real estate and aviation were impacted. Besides, the Russia-Ukraine war hampered growth.
Talking to reporters, Nageswaran played down the risk of recession. “I don’t see the prospects of recession for India in FY23. People normally consider two-quarters of growth contraction as a recession. As far as India is concerned, I don’t think this is on the cards for FY23.”
The CEA also sounded optimistic about private investment in the country, which got adversely affected by the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. He expects it to pick up in the second half of the current year.
Commenting on the GDP numbers, Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at CRISIL, said: “The Indian economy in fiscal 2022 was only 1.5% above the pre-pandemic level (fiscal 2020), compared with 1.8% estimated earlier. But the estimates for both private consumption and fixed investment estimates are a touch higher than before.”
Meanwhile, government finances looked slightly better than expected with provisional data showing a fiscal deficit at Rs 15.86 lakh crore was 6.7% of the FY22 GDP against the revised budget estimate of 6.9%. Gross tax collection soared to 34% to Rs 27 lakh crore while net tax collection (after deducting state’s share) stood at Rs 18.2 lakh crore against the revised budget estimate of Rs 17.65 lakh crore.
Telling Numbers
GDP in the fourth quarter rose by 4.1% compared to 5.4% in the third quarter
Real GDP growth in FY22 was 8.7% lower than the govt’s earlier estimate of 8.9% in February
Size of India’s economy (nominal GDP)
FY21 - Rs 198.01 lakh cr
FY22 - Rs 236.65 lakh cr
Private final consumption expenditure, which accounts for 55-56% of GDP, grew 7.9% in FY22 but it is only Rs 1.2 lakh crore higher than that in FY20
Core sector growth rose to a six-month high 8.4% in April 2022 from 4.9% in March 2022
Centre’s fiscal deficit in FY22 was lower at 6.7% than the revised budgeted target of 6.9% on the back of strong tax collection
Govt’s gross tax revenue surged 34% with corporate taxes increasing 55% and income tax collection by 43%