The Indian rupee remained relatively stable during the first week of July 2025, trading within a narrow range against the US dollar. Despite global economic headwinds and tariff uncertainties, the rupee managed to strengthen midweek before ending the week on a flat note.
Exchange rate highlights:
July 1 (Tuesday): The rupee opened around ₹85.70 and closed near ₹85.59, reflecting minor gains amid calm market conditions.
July 2 (Wednesday): The rupee showed slight weakness, influenced by global concerns over potential U.S. tariff policies. It traded in the ₹85.52–₹85.77 range.
July 3 (Thursday): The rupee appreciated to a one-month high, closing at ₹85.31. This gain was driven by foreign inflows and optimism surrounding a potential trade agreement between India and the US.
July 4 (Friday): The currency remained stable at around ₹85.62. Strong US jobs data supported the dollar, limiting further rupee gains.
July 5 (Saturday): Markets were mostly flat with the rupee estimated to remain in the ₹85.60–₹85.65 band.
Key influencing factors this week's rupee trend included range-bound trading, US trade and economic signals, capital inflows and the central bank's stable policies.
The rupee moved between ₹85.30 and ₹85.90 for most of the week, showing resilience despite global volatility.
Tariff concerns and strong US employment figures affected the dollar’s performance, indirectly impacting the rupee.
A surge in foreign investor activity and dollar sales by banks helped the rupee gain midweek.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its support for the currency through measured interventions.
The analysts expect the rupee to remain in the ₹85–₹86 range in the near term. Market participants are watching for developments in US–India trade negotiations and upcoming US Federal Reserve comments. However, any major shift in foreign investment sentiment or global macroeconomic data could affect the rupee’s direction next week, they warned.