CHENNAI: Stock markets are trading strong in the mid-morning session on Friday, with the Sensex up by 710 points and the Nifty reclaiming the 25,000 level. Both the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices have gained around 0.5%. The uptick is being driven by continued buying from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), though overall momentum remains subdued amid ongoing Middle East tensions.
Top gainers on the Nifty include M&M, Jio Financial, Bharti Airtel, Power Grid Corp, and Shriram Finance. Meanwhile, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Finance, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra are among the top losers. All sectoral indices are in the green, with metals, PSU banks, real estate, and telecom stocks rising between 1% and 2%.
Institutional Flows & Sector Trends:
FIIs continued their buying streak for a third straight session on June 19, with net inflows of ₹934 crore. DIIs were also net buyers, adding ₹605 crore, lending support to the market.
Financials led intraday gains (+0.5% to 0.8%), especially power-financing firms and state-owned banks, buoyed by the RBI’s easing of infrastructure funding norms, effective October.
Defensive sectors like FMCG, pharma, and IT remain in favor amid prevailing uncertainty.
Market Expectations and Analyst Forecasts:
The Nifty is encountering resistance near the 25,000 mark, struggling to hold above it, with sell-offs seen at each attempt.
A Reuters poll of analysts projects the Nifty to reach 26,500 by end-2025 and 28,450 by end-2026, though a short-term correction is likely given elevated valuations. Axis Securities expects a bull-case target of 27,600 by March 2026.
Markets remain in a consolidation phase—volatile, geopolitically sensitive, and characterized by a “sell-on-rise” sentiment.
Investors expect choppy trading, with sentiment closely tied to global and geopolitical developments. However, the medium-term outlook remains positive, underpinned by robust earnings, supportive policies, and sustained capital inflows. Key indicators to monitor include crude prices, rupee movement, FII activity, and RBI signals.
Rupee Update:
Tensions in the Middle East—particularly Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and retaliatory actions by Iran—have heightened risk aversion, pushing up oil prices ($77–77.5/barrel), pressuring the Indian rupee, and dampening equity sentiment.
The rupee has slipped to a three-month low, trading in the ₹86.7–₹86.9/$ band, weighed down by rising oil prices and geopolitical risk.
Economists and oil sector analysts caution that persistent crude price increases could widen India’s current account deficit—each $10 rise in oil prices may add approximately 0.4% to GDP pressure.