BENGALURU: The positivity rate has dropped below 1 per cent in 30 districts in the state, however, experts caution that the government should maintain a high level of testing until November. Testing Positivity Rate (TPR) is the percentage of people testing positive for the virus, compared to the total number of people tested. If the positivity rate is high, it indicates high infection prevalence.
However, as per the World Health Organisation, positivity rate should be less than 5 per cent for two weeks, to ease restrictions. In spite of the government easing restrictions in July-end, the numbers are still low, and in October, the positivity rate has fallen below 1 per cent, indicating a good sign. On Friday, though, the number of cases shot up by 30 per cent.
According to State War Room data, for the past seven days, the overall TPR of the state was 0.31 per cent, with 20 districts showing a positivity rate lower than the state average. In the beginning of October, Chikkamagaluru (1.69 per cent), Kodagu (1.56 per cent), Udupi (1.19 per cent) and Dakshina Kannada (1.05 per cent) had positivity rate above 1 per cent.
On October 12, only two districts had positivity rate above 1 per cent -- Mysuru (1.04 per cent) and Hassan (1.03 per cent) -- while by October 14, positivity rate has fallen below 1 per cent. Mysuru reported 0.82 per cent, Hassan 0.77 per cent, Uttara Kannada 0.55 per cent, Chikkamagaluru 0.49 per cent, Udupi 0.46 per cent, and all other districts recorded positivity rate less than 1 per cent. Kalaburagi and Yadgir reported zero TPR, while Bagalkot and Haveri have a positivity rate of 0.02 per cent.
Dr MK Sudarshan, Chairman of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), pointed out that though Karnataka is doing well, it is advisable that testing should not drop until November-end. “The situation in Karnataka is fairly good, with TPR below 1 per cent. However, in October and November, it is important to keep testing rate of 1,10,000 in the entire state, of which 50,000 tests should be in Bengaluru alone. Three things are important -- wearing masks, vaccination and testing. It is a good sign if the situation remains like this. The only thing that can cause a trigger is mutation, and appearance of a new variant of concern. Also, going by the population at large, Covid appropriate behaviour is unsatisfactory.”
Dr C N Manjunath, director of Jayadeva Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences and Research and a member of TAC, said it is not advisable to lower one’s guard till December. “We are observing a situation similar to the end of the first wave, when the state reported 300 to 500 new cases each day. It is similar in the rest of the country, except for Kerala, which is reporting 9,000 to 10,000 cases daily. The cases now are only family clusters and not community clusters. Positivity rate is declining, possibly due to a combination of vaccination, herd immunity and natural exposure.” He added that the third wave was predicted to hit in October-November, but time is running out.