CHENNAI: Basic difference
The existing models, including the one developed by the IMD, can accurately predict the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala
The new method proposed by the German scientists can predict both the onset and withdrawal of monsoon over central India
The new one uses air temperature and relative humidity unlike current methods
Spot on
May 6: researchers predict monsoon will hit Telangana on June 10 +/- 4 days
June 8: monsoon hits Kerala, will reach Telangana on Friday
Ghats, North Pak link
As per the German approach, Eastern Ghats in Central India and North Pakistan serve as “tipping elements” in more accurately predicting the arrival and departure of the southwest monsoon
Cyclonic circulations start in the Eastern Ghats as a local weather phenomenon and serves as a tipping element due to the collision of the two branches of monsoon (Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal)
Why is it crucial?
The summer monsoon contributes around 80% of India’s annual rainfall
Despite services and industry contributing the most to the gross domestic product, agriculture still employs almost half of the working population, says 2011 Census
The long-range accurate prediction of the monsoon is a matter of life or death both in terms of employment and farm output. Even the stock markets reacted positively when the IMD predicted a higher than normal monsoon this year