From ‘estimated’ seat share to the ‘public image’ of sitting MLAs, the three major parties in the national capital had to fall back on intense surveys to ensure a victory in the Assembly election on February 8.
The Aam Aadmi Party, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress pored over the results of such surveys, garnered from ‘every nook and cranny’ via data analytics and voters’ mood surveys to be in sync, while using ‘tools’ to entice the fence-sitters, non-believers and woo the uninitiated first-timers.
The ruling AAP, which broke the two-way fight cycle between BJP and the Congress, even publicised its internal surveys to turn the tide before Assembly elections in 2013 and 2015. The other two, have just cottoned on to the idea.
Voter behaviour
“Social desirability is a factor among Indian voters. Hence, a voter’s choice is to an extent influenced by the choice of the majority. A voter in India does not want to be seen on the losing side. As we have observed, after an election if a survey is conducted in a particular constituency, then 80-90 per cent of the people will vouch having voted for the winner. So, there is limited impact on the undecided voters in publicising these surveys like the AAP has done in the past,” said Sanjay Kumar, professor at Lokniti – Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), which has estimated a clear majority for AAP in the upcoming Assembly polls.
However, surveys can have other internal benefits. For one, it helps in drumming up support in the run-up to the elections.
“If the senior leadership announces that a survey is to be conducted, many leaders in the hope of getting a ticket, often get moving by holding public meetings and putting up posters in order to secure approval. This helps in indirectly promoting the party among the voters,” said a BJP official. Out of power for over two decades, the Delhi BJP currently has three MLAs and one in alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal.
The state saffron unit has conducted almost three surveys in the past year to study the battleground-one in-house, the others two sourced.
“It is better to engage a private firm to show us a clear picture of as in-house surveys can always be smoothened by party workers’ bias,” added the official. According to BJP officials, the party is relying on the public image of PM Narendra Modi and national issues like the Citizenship Amendment Act with sprinkles of local and Poorvanchali issues.
Tweaking the game plan
While BJP has announced most of its candidates — confident of a clear win — the ruling AAP has released the list of all 70 candidates and hopes to surpass the 67 seat-mark while dropping 15 sitting members. AAP surveys were conducted between September to November 2019 to identify MLAs who needed to replaced and identify potential replacements. As many leaders switched sides before the polls, the survey was also conducted to find out whether the AAP could bank on ‘switchers.’
“The party issued tickets by vetting three CCCs — corruption, crime and character. During the survey it was found that few representatives were not up to the mark hence they were replaced,” said a senior AAP official. After ruling Delhi for five years, Arvind Kejriwal is eyeing a hat-trick this time but the party, is unlikely to make any of its surveys public like it did in the past. Its abysmal performance in the Lok Sabha last year and the volatile atmosphere in the city due to recent protests, maybe the reason for the party to stick to its strength — its public welfare schemes.
Hence, AAP has appealed to the public to vote on local issues and has attacked its main contender, the BJP on the law and order, which is the Centre’s jurisdiction.
“Internal surveys are for internal consumption. We are seeing an amazing response on the ground for CM Kejriwal with a 55 per cent vote share. A landslide victory is expected. We are confident of crossing our 67-seat mark,” said AAP national secretary Pankaj Gupta.
Gauging the problems
The Congress announced its list with several ‘dropped’ candidates coming in from AAP. It, too, conducted surveys to find the best fit for each Assembly constituency and the issues of the general public.
A triangular competition seems unlikely in the city as the voters have over the years turned their back on the Grand Old Party. Senior leaders like Kapil Sibal have publicly said that Congress in Delhi will play the ‘kingmaker’ but the party is targeting an increase in vote share to signal a revival.
The party is relying on the work done by late chief minister Sheila Dikshit while targeting both AAP and BJP for lack of development and harmony in the society. “Our internal surveys, have helped in our understanding of the issues among the public” informed state Congress president Subhash Chopra.