A daily cyclone forecast report of the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC), put up on the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) website on Monday, raised enough concern for the Met officials in the city, who foresee the probability of a cyclone worse than last year’s Nilam to hit the state in the coming days. An official cyclone warning, officials say, is expected in a couple of days.
The report informs about the formation of a low pressure area over Tenasserim coast of Andaman and Nicobar Islands under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation. And according to the report, “It would intensify further once it moves into the sea in the next 24 hours.”
According to officials at the Hyderabad Meteorological Centre, the low pressure formed near Andamans would intensify further into a depression, deep depression and cyclonic storm and even severe or very severe or super cyclone by the time it travels through the sea heading towards the east coast.
“The more the low pressure formation travels over the sea, the more it would gain in momentum and strength. Though there is no official warning from the government so far, it is expected to travel mostly towards Andhra coast in the next three to four days,” said Narasimha Rao, assistant meteorologist.
He further added that this cyclonic formation would be worse than Nilam cyclone that hit the coast near Chennai last October.
“Nilam weakened into a low pressure while moving into Andhra Pradesh and still caused widespread damage. And Nilam was not formed as far as North Andamans, like the present formation,” he explained.
The department would study the formation once it turns into a depression. “In two or three days, we can expect a warning,” he said.
Cyclone Nilam was the deadliest tropical cyclone to directly affect South India since 2010. At least 44 lives were lost and lakhs of people had to be evacuated from low lying areas, while crops worth crores of rupees had been destroyed due to heavy torrential rains.