In olden days, soon after a movie release, the “talk” would generally be on whether it’s meant for the “mass” (working sections) or the “class” (middle & upper classes). Hit movies of either kind would celebrate “100 days” — the only difference between the two being composition of the audience.
Much of what is happening in the Battle for Ballot-2014 in Andhra Pradesh is akin to this — on the one hand, there is essentially a welfare agenda being sold by YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress and on the other, is a development story the Telugu Desam campaign is heavily relying on with its chief N Chandrababu Naidu scripting the same with BJP PM candidate Narendra Modi.
Post-division of Andhra Pradesh, thanks to its own leaders, the Congress has been pushed so deep into the pit that it is finding it difficult to get out of it. As you travel across the three districts comprising North Coastal Andhra — Srikakulam, Vizianagaram and Visakhapatnam — considered as backward as the newly-carved out Telangana, you still find a section of faithful Congress voters. It is just that leaders have abandoned the ship while the brave are putting up a fight.
With the Congress by and large not in contention, the fight has essentially turned two-way, making it the keenest one would have ever seen — both YSRC and TDP positioning their poles in every colony, village and town to go for the kill on May 7. If the YSRC was seen as having an easy ride before the division, a series of subsequent events — fall of the Congress, concerns about the future of the residuary state and realignment of political forces at the local level - have brought the TDP back into the reckoning.
Unlike Rayalaseema or the south of Coastal Andhra Pradesh where voters generally align with a political party based on caste lines, north coastal belt comprising five Lok Sabha seats and 34 Assembly constituencies, is heavily dominated by backward classes and SCs, and is known for its “undecided voters” who swing either way close to the polls.
Whether you travel on the quadrilateral road that takes you from Visakhapatnam to Srikakulam or hit the connecting roads that take you to the hinterland, the refrain is the same. “We are listening to what everyone is saying. But, we are yet to make up our mind. I don’t know what my wife will do when she enters the booth? How can I tell you who is going to win?” asks Govinda, an auto-driver at Bitwada village near Palakonda town. What is unmistakable is that there is no wave either for the YSR Congress or the Telugu Desam. Leaders are clueless as voters keep the cards close to their chest. “I have to admit there is no one-way swing. It is a tough fight but we feel it will be positive for us,” confesses a YSR Congress candidate as he takes a break for lunch. Both YSR Congress and TDP made mistakes in the selection of candidates and the alliance the Telugu Desam chose to have with the BJP is working both ways — it is adding some vote but is also hurting the party in constituencies which it gave up for its partner.
Vasudeva Rao, a mechanic with a private factory in S Kota constituency, sums up the situation aptly: “YSR Congress has seen some loss post-division for a variety of reasons including the feeling that Jagan did not do enough to stop bifurcation. Voters are well and truly confused. Should they go for a novice like Jagan and trust him to develop Seemandhra or put faith in someone (Chandrababu Naidu) far more experienced?”
The line-up, though, is clear: a vast majority of the poor, who do not seem to have much stake in the development model, are with the YSR Congress. The middle class, a section of farmers and upper classes, who look for development and the consequent creation of employment and other opportunities, appear to be backing the Telugu Desam.
Rahul Gandhi and his party may be out of the reckoning in this election but it is that newly-created section of society that he talks about — above the poverty line but below the middle class, still dependent on welfare and at the same time, nursing higher aspirations — that could tilt the balance.
But, at the end of the day, none of the above will matter more than liquor and money. In the recently held local election, candidates were said to have spent `1000-`2000 per vote. “The whole scenario will change a day before polling, depending on how much the candidates are willing to splurge. Effective distribution of liquor and cash is the key to winning the election,” emphasizes Mohan Rao of Singannapalem village.