HYDERABAD: The Indian Meteorological Department announced here on Thursday that the onset of monsoon is expected to arrive earlier than expected this year.
Contrary to reports which suggested that monsoon would hit Kerala coast on June 1, senior Met officials said it would hit Kerala coast on May 30, two days ahead of the expected date. The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala signals the arrival of monsoon over the Indian subcontinent and represents beginning of rainy season over the region.
From 2005 onwards ESSO-India Meteorological Department (IMD) have been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon over Kerala using an indigenously developed statistical model.
However, weathermen have said that despite early onset, there would be deficit rainfall across the country. “These two are independent things. If monsoon sets in early, it doesn’t mean that rainfall will be less or more and vice versa. That’s why we give different forecasts for onset of monsoon and amount of rainfall. This year, the amount of rainfall is going to be seven per cent less than the average rainfall across the country,” observed YK Reddy, director-in-charge, Hyderabad Meteorological Department.
According to senior Met officials, rains could be below average during the coming monsoon season due to an impact of El Nino weather pattern, which can bring a dry spell in the region. This is bound to impact the agricultural sector, which is heavily dependent on monsoon which is crucial for sowing of summer crops such as paddy, and a deficit of rainfall may affect the output of rice.
After a poor monsoon in 2014, the untimely rains during March-April this year has put farmers in further distress, which have also resulted in several cases of farmers’ ending lives.
Meanwhile, officials at the Hyderabad Meteorological Department asserted that it was too early to predict the onset of monsoon or the amount of rainfall in a particular state or region.
“At this stage, we can’t tell anything about the particular state or a particular region of the country. In mid-June, we will again review the situation and will be able to give the forecast about a particular region,” Reddy added.