KOCHI: The draft report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which warns of devastating rise in sea level, has raised concern about possible inundation of Kochi triggering a debate on the need to stay prepared to face the catastrophe. Scientists at the National Institute of Oceanography, who conduct research on the oceanographic features in the Indian Ocean, have endorsed the view that Kochi coast is vulnerable to inundation triggered by sea level rise.
According to PK Dinesh Kumar, Chief Scientist at the National Institute of Oceanography, Kochi Regional Centre, the Arabian Sea has been witnessing climate shift from 1995, with a sudden increase in sea surface temperature. “There is no need for a panic reaction as of now as it takes decades to happen. However, global sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 2 m has been predicted over the next century and it would disrupt the physical processes, economic activities and social systems in the coastal zones,” he said.
A study published by Dinesh Kumar in 2006 had highlighted the probability of inundation of Kochi due to sea-level rise triggered by climate change. The report predicts that sea level may rise by 0.5 m by 2050 and 1 m by 2100. If the sea level rises by 1 m, 169.11 sq km in Kochi will be inundated and if it rises by 2 m, an estimated 598.83 sq km area will sink, says the report prepared based on satellite images.
The losses of urban areas and rural areas will be 43 sq km and 187 sq km respectively which is alarming, he said. “The sea level is rising at an alarming rate due to greenhouse effect which has triggered melting of polar ice caps. The changes are visible in countries like Italy. Kochi is vulnerable because the elevation from sea level is less. The high population density in vulnerable areas like Vypin is a cause of concern,” said Dinesh Kumar. According to S Prasannakumar, Emeritus Scientist at the National Institute of Oceanography Headquarters in Goa, wetlands along the coastal areas of Kochi, Mumbai and Sundarbans are highly vulnerable to sea level rise.
“We have been studying the impact of climate change in Indian Ocean for the past 10 years. The sea level will rise due to expansion of water and melting of ice. This will inundate the marshy lands leading to a disaster. Apart from seal level rise, climate change will cause change in weather pattern. Torrential rain will be a regular phenomenon and a combination of high tide and sea level rise can increase the magnitude of devastation. Rampant urbanisation has led to reclamation of flood plains which increases probability of floods,” he said.