Every disaster contains valuable lessons. The recent Wayanad landslide has pointers for the future that Kerala, as also the country, cannot afford to ignore. While the disaster underscored the effects of climate change, it also served as a dire warning to accept new realities - and to adapt or perish.
A study by climate scientists pegged global warming, which has increased the intensity of monsoon rainfall in the region by 10 per cent, as a trigger for the landslide. Warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, making downpours heavier. While that explains the spells of unusually heavy rain Kerala is witnessing, other factors that come into play in a landslide are steepness of the slope, permeability of the soil, and human activities like land use change, deforestation, mining and construction.
Sudden heavy downpours and human activities are associated with Kerala’s frequent floods, too. Add to this the fact that almost 15 per cent of Kerala is landslide-prone and an equal area is flood-prone, the seriousness becomes apparent.
So climate change and the region’s fragility should be kept in mind while taking up developmental activities in Kerala. Fast urbanisation and high population density make the task difficult. Dealing with it does not mean stopping developmental activities. People need facilities and the state needs to progress in tune with the times and its reputation.
Challenges and disasters should prompt innovations that make lives safer while ensuring progress. In this, Kerala can learn a lesson or two from Aizawl. After a landslide that killed 17 in 2013, Mizoram City prepared comprehensive landslide hazard maps and enforced strict slope modification rules, helping curb later damages.
While Kerala must bring in regulations for slope modification and promote disaster-resilient construction, it must also put in place a better disaster-response system. Effective data-driven monitoring and early warning systems should be set up so that accurate and actionable alerts are available timely.
The government can bring together its agencies, academic institutions, independent climate researchers and ordinary people to develop a strategy for hazard identification, monitoring, response and rescue. Vulnerable communities should be given access to data on risks, which will help them to be proactive and protect themselves. Risks are often unpredictable, but Kerala must show the resolve to change course and keep itself safe.