It’s status quo in Kerala politics. That is the message from the bypolls to two assembly constituencies and one parliamentary seat in the state. While the Congress and the CPI(M) held on to their seats, the BJP again proved to be a contender below par, finishing a distant second in one seat and a dismal third in two others.
The no-loss-no-gain outcome may have satisfied the Congress and the CPI(M), but it underlined a dire warning for the BJP. The party’s bypoll performance especially in Palakkad, where it was expected to win or give a tough fight points to organisational inadequacies and indicates it may have squandered the gains made in the 2024 parliamentary elections, in which it won one seat and gave a scare to rivals in a few others.
The party must admit the Palakkad bypoll was its best chance to re-enter the Kerala assembly. The factors were mostly in its favour. Yet, it lost not only the election, but also a significant portion of its traditional voter base. Consider this: it secured 39,549 votes (28.63 percent) in the bypoll, which is more than 10,000 fewer than what its candidate, metro man E Sreedharan, had polled in 2021.
The bypoll tally is even lower than BJP’s 2016 share. One of the factors blamed for the debacle is candidate selection. To call C Krishnakumar, the candidate, a familiar face for Palakkad voters would be an understatement. He has contested six elections in the last nine years for the BJP in the district, with not much success to show. A section of the party did not want him to contest this time, but the leadership’s will prevailed.
The defeat seems to have fuelled infighting in the party. Resentment is brewing against the state leadership, particularly targeting state president K Surendran. One of the weakest links in BJP’s Kerala setup has always been its leadership. While the party has been steadily garnering support in the state, it has been undone by poor strategising time and again.
The BJP needs more than random electoral victories to emerge as a serious challenger. Status quo does not suit the party to break it, it must reinvest itself. A leadership overhaul, fixing organisational flaws, cessation of infighting and formulation of better strategies could help it make a proper breakthrough in the state.