Donald Trump has always had a sympathetic ear for Vladimir Putin. The US president has, time and again, criticised his country’s massive financial support for Ukraine’s defence. But no one was prepared for the seismic shift in Europe’s balance of power—one probably not seen since the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance (NATO) was set up in 1949 to contain the Soviet Union. Over the last 3 years, the 18-nation alliance was rejuvenated to support Ukraine against the Russian onslaught. But now, in a matter of days, Europe’s security screen seems to be in tatters. First, Trump opened talks with Russia on halting the war, but excluded both Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Europe. Then he echoed Putin in calling Zelenskyy a ‘dictator’ and suggested fresh elections for Ukraine.
That it’s a new equation being forged between the US and Russia, not a fleeting irritation between transatlantic allies, became clear in recent voting patterns at the UN General Assembly and Security Council. First, a Europe-backed resolution in the General Assembly condemning Russia’s aggression and supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity was passed, but with the US voting against it along with Russia, China and North Korea. Then a US-backed resolution calling for an end to the conflict—without criticising Russia—was carried in the Security Council with key US allies the UK and France abstaining.
A shocked Europe, which saw the US as an anchor-defender of Western democracy, is now scrambling to work out its own and Ukraine’s security shield. Germany’s new conservative chancellor-elect, Friedrich Merz, underlined that Trump has shown he does not care for Europe’s security and urged the continent to develop its own defences, and even find a replacement for NATO within months. ‘America First’ has become ‘America Alone’, he said.
So is NATO dead? Will Europe emerge as a new superpower under Germany and France and stand up to the US, Russia and China when needed? Will Ukraine continue to fight or buckle under the Russian boot? Or, is this Trump’s power-play to force Kyiv to trade ‘peace’ for ceding territory to Moscow? It’s too early for definitive answers as the US’s dramatic policy changes continue to flow. But one thing is certain: the hitherto-stable power equations of Europe will never be the same again.