A byelection to one of 140 assembly seats in Kerala, with less than a year to the end of the current government’s term, should have been no more than a formality. Instead, the Nilambur bypoll shaped into a keen battle that was made additionally interesting by the independent candidacy of the former MLA whose rebellion necessitated the election. As the results the five assembly bypolls held across four states were announced on Monday, the lone seat in Kerala turned out to be the only one where the incumbent party lost. In Gujarat, the BJP held on to Kadi and the AAP won again from Visavadar. In Punjab’s Ludhiana West, the ruling AAP retained the seat. In West Bengal, Trinamool Congress won from Kaliganj, thus maintaining its hold on the constituency. But in Kerala, the Congress-led UDF snatched Nilambur from the ruling CPM-led LDF in a victory that holds many implications.
The Nilambur outcome, the only bypoll win for the Congress, is significant because it levels the playing field in Kerala politics ahead of the assembly elections due in 2026. At a time a buzz is being created about the possibility of a historic third term for Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukath’s victory signals that the party will not be a pushover come the bigger test next year. While the factors that made UDF seem weak— lack of synergy among partners and leaders, infighting within the Congress and absence of a strong and collective leadership—still remain, the victory gives it a fighting chance in the elections to come. Shoukat’s win also underlines the existence of an anti-incumbency factor against the Pinarayi government, which worked spectacularly well for the Congress in the 2024 general elections.
This byelection is neither a harbinger of change, nor a referendum on the LDF government. However, it certainly gives the impression that the 2026 elections can be anybody’s game. To cash in and build on the victory, the Congress must put its house in order and present a united face in the days ahead. The loss in a sitting seat should rankle with the CPI(M); the party would do well to imbibe the underlying message about the factors working against it and an eroding voter base. Nilambur goes to show why no election in Kerala is just an election.