By now, the world has got used to the shifting policy positions of Donald Trump. So when the narrative sharply changed on his Truth Social account from the bravado of having “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear weapons programme on Sunday night, to the Monday announcement of a “complete and total ceasefire” ending the 12-day Israel-Iran war, it was not difficult to digest. The world heaved a sigh of relief with a pause on the strikes that were threatening not only West Asia, but the rest of the world too. While all parties to the conflict—the US, Israel and Iran—declared victory, the rest of world hoped for a lasting peace. Israel quickly affirmed Trump’s call for ceasefire. Iran was more guarded, but its calibrated ‘attack’ with prior warning on US facilities in Qatar indicated Tehran was also ready to take an off ramp.
The hopes were briefly belied on Tuesday as Israel and Iran resumed attacks on each other within hours of the official start of the ceasefire. Through the day, Trump became increasingly agitated, especially with Israel, for continuing to “unload” bombs. After Trump’s public rebuke, Benjamin Netanyahu promised to refrain from more strikes. The world is still hoping for the warring parties to keep their word as their short-term goals seem to have been met. For Trump, his claim of ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions without sacrificing American lives has lifted his domestic stock. Netanyahu has scotched dissent at home. Iran, too, has demonstrated that it is no pushover.
However, for the long term, most of the contentious issues remain unresolved. Despite the US’s claim of forging ‘peace with strength’, regional calculations may have moved a few steps back. Tehran has threatened legal action against the International Atomic Energy Agency chief, whose role would be crucial for any new nuclear deal to be placed on the table. The nuclear non-proliferation treaty seems to be in tatters now, with Iran poised to exit. Despite American and Israeli claims, it is not clear what has happened to Fordo’s enriched uranium and centrifuges. Meanwhile, the Gaza imbroglio drags on without resolution, with the European Union’s foreign policy chief promising action against Israel if things do not improve. Long-term solutions to the region’s many conflicts seem as distant today as they were before the strikes. For now, the world will settle for a ceasefire.