The Bangladesh Crisis Mirrors Imran’s Pakistan
The political imbalance in Bangladesh has numerous concerns beyond the state of its borders. The currents state of events represents a phenomenon that unfolded in Pakistan a few months ago. The toppling of Sheikh Hasina’s government mirrors that of Imran Khan in Pakistan. Sheikh Hasina came back to power in January 2024 in a one-sided election. It was boycotted by the main opposition party, the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party). The likely US role in these events in India’s both neighbouring countries can be understood as the American government voicing its displeasure with Imran Khan in Pakistan and Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh.
A parallel between both countries is the military keeping to one side and allowing an agitation of this magnitude that led to the overthrow of the ruling government. In case of Bangladesh, it became more extreme but the general discontent has a trigger. In Sheikh Hasina’s case, it was quota reservation that played a key role in her downfall.
According to this new reform, the children and grandchildren of freedom fighters who fought the 1971 liberation war would have benefited. This was meant to create a specific constituency within the government and outside it to help Sheikh Hasina retain power in a one-party manner. This gave the opportunity to the extreme right-wing elements in Bangladesh, led by Jamaat-e-Islami, to use it against the government.
A situation where the Opposition was intimidated and one-sided elections were held for two consecutive terms using muscle power did not sit well with the common public in Bangladesh. Research by Columbia University says that three and a half per cent of a population all over, if organised properly, can change the direction of the government. If you pay attention to the events in Pakistan and Bangladesh, the civil resistance movement has worked because democratic outlets had been suppressed in both countries for a long time.
The previous election in Pakistan was rigged in favour of Imran Khan. Subsequently, he became popular with the masses and unpopular with the Army. The scenario in Bangladesh is similar. If the military doesn’t support you, then you are bound for a regime change. In Sheikh Hasina’s case, this trend was already visible. What is concerning right now are the right-wing forces in Bangladesh. If the Jamaat has to survive in Bangladesh, they must win an election. They definitely have the kind of organisation that can orchestrate an agitation like this. Even during the Arab Spring, the governments had to face the wrath of people when the military withdrew support. Only those which managed to carry the military along could suppress the uprising.
With reports of Hindu temples and minorities being attacked in Bangladesh, the situation for India remains very geopolitically tricky. We can become an obvious hate-figure, especially with Sheikh Hasina staying here. As long as that continues, the hate towards India will keep growing. For her sake and for India’s sake, it is best that she leaves. The main Opposition in Bangladesh, which is BNP, will definitely gain from the situation. It is a negative vote for Hasina, which would be further exploited by former Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.
Moving forward, Sheikh Hasina living in India complicates the already tense situation. The Bangladesh crisis adds to India’s set of worries when it comes to its not-so great relations with China and Pakistan. This can lead to India’s dominance over the Indian Ocean getting compromised, which could start making us look weak.
The writer is former Addl Secy, NSCS