The Centre for Economic and Business Research, a prominent British think-tank, has brought good news to India in the New Year. Its annual report says India will replace Japan to have the position of world’s third largest economy in 2028. But it is to be noted that India slips a notch this year losing its tenth position to Canada and dropping down to the eleventh due to devaluation of the rupee.
2018 is considered as the year of revival when India can attain ninth position. In 2023, India will go up to fourth and in 2028, it will reach the prestigious third while China will be on the top of the list pushing the US to the second position. After fifteen years though, the positions may change while most of the top 11 will remain the same. Italy and France may drop out and Mexico and Korea will enter.
China’s GDP will shoot up from $8,939 billion to $33,513 billion, that is approximately four times, but GDP of the US will only be doubled from $16,724 billion to $32,214 billion. India may grow from $1,758 billion to $6,516 billion. It means even if we attain the third position, our GDP will be one-fifth of the Chinese. India may not create the wealth China created even after 15 years.
The world economic league table of 2028 clearly reveals that the Western domination is receding fast. Even Germany will drop from fourth position to sixth and the UK from sixth to seventh. Among the first five, only the US will represent the Western economic power houses. China, India, Japan and Brazil will be in the first five along with the US. All European countries will be out from the first five league.
In the third decade of 21st century, the present third world will replace their former colonial masters by making a paradigm shift in the global political economy. But the third world countries cannot sit in complacence. The wealth distribution and income in equality loom large over their achievements. Both India and China, the proposed toppers in 2028, are having grave inequality coefficient to their shame. There are many regions in these economies which could not attain the millennium goals. In India (South Asia), the inequality in income between men and women is the highest. Globally, the total income of all men is more than double that of all women. But in India and in South Asia, it is five times.
This is the economics of injustice towards the insecure women in India. To contain the atrocities against women in the developing third world, economic inequality of women has to be reduced to a minimum.
Even in the US, the racial wealth gap (black-white economic divide) has been growing. If we calculate the economic divide between our scheduled caste and scheduled tribes and the top brass, the wealth gap will be one of the worst in the world.
The mere growth in GDP will not give the growing third world all the leverage they attain to have. The European countries and Japan are focusing more on the economic complexity through which they can control the production of sophisticated machines, pharmaceuticals, products of biotechnology, etc. The third industrial revolution in offing can replace work force and can ‘print’ the products in 3D. This can be a threat to the advantageous positions now enjoyed by the emerging third world countries like India and China.
The right development of science, technology and innovations in the emerging third world can only make them competent enough to cope up with the Western countries which are in serious search for proper development strategies through their abundant power of scientific knowledge. firstname.lastname@example.org