The elections over, those responsible for governing the land hopefully will now return to jobs they have been entrusted with. When the campaigning is on there is little time for things other than promises, freebies and demonising the opponents. The model code of conduct is breached frequently with impunity while the Election Commission appears to have forgotten that it has the power to punish the delinquents effectively and in a manner that deters others. What has been termed the ‘Festival of Democracy’ triggers the onset of a no-holds barred celebratory open season.
Momentous events have changed the international ‘landscape’ in recent months. Putin’s military intervention in Ukraine has seriously upset India’s plans and projections for post Covid economic recovery. It can’t wish away the dangerous impact of rising oil and gas prices on inflation and economic growth. The political situation in west Asia and middle east continues to be volatile. The conflict raging in Yemen threatens to explode and escalate unpredictably. Iran is involved in the civil war due to its support to Houdi rebels whom the Saudi and Emirati have failed to subdue.
Israel has been active in this geography since signing the Abraham Accords and continues to issue ultimatums to Iran regarding its Nuclear Programme. The US has been in humiliating retreat and President Biden’s off the cuff statements have only added to the confusion. How does India respond to threats to its vital interests when all its friend and adversaries are apparently suffering from post trauma stress disorders?
It is easy to prescribe that India must carefully walk on the tight rope. Walk in which direction? Walk or balance standing still—watching and waiting? How long can acrobatic and optics substitute for policy recalibration? There is nothing masterly about inactivity in the third decade of 21st century.
One must, for once, spare the sling shot that flings barbed words at people in power. The Indian government hasn’t flinched from asserting its independence. The American friends have time and again expressed their disappointment with India’s position on Ukraine.
One can imagine the pressure the US must have applied behind the scenes to make India do their bidding. India’s abstentions in the votes in UNSC and General Assembly have signalled clearly that India will decide its course in the light of its own national interests. Thinly veiled warnings about sanctions India may attract in case it doesn’t join the ‘Democratic’ camp hasn’t swayed it from strict non-alignment in the ‘War in Europe.
The Ukrainian crisis has altered power equations outside Europe also. Putin has few options once the European market for its gas starts shrinking. The Chinese embrace will become tighter and to put it mildly a bit stifling with passage of time. Buying Russian oil and gas in Yuan not Dollars may wreck the US dollar hegemony in international trade but it will also impact on Russian capacity to negotiate prices. As far as India is concerned emergence of a Sino-Russian block confronts it with complex challenges. China is most likely to be less inhibited about its aggressive expansionist drive in South China Sea, Indian and the Pacific Ocean. This doesn’t necessarily mean that it would adopt a more reconciliatory posture along the disputed land border with India. On the contrary, when the world is worried about Ukraine it may resume unfinished tasks elsewhere.
The Chinese Foreign Minister’s short visit to India was handled with aplomb by the External Affairs Minister (EAM) and the NSA who conveyed to the Chinese unambiguously that there can be no business as usual until China took substantial steps to reduce tension in Ladakh and ceased provocation in Arunachal Pradesh. The EAM’s tours of Sri Lanka and Maldives are also very reassuring. Neighbours next door at long last are getting the attention they deserve. Here, we should continue to remain on guards against letting pulls and pressures of domestic politics unbalance foreign policy priorities.
States proximate to Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh have in past tended to derail significant diplomatic initiatives. Maldives has suffered due to its microscopic size. Its strategic sensitivity is great. Pakistan and Bangladesh evoke strong emotions for historical reasons. Unfortunately, in both cases popular passions aroused for partisan purposes at election time leave behind the residue of poisonous communalism. Words used without weighing what they imply can lead to disastrous consequences. Refugees become indistinguishable from infiltrators, religious identities are misused to target innocent victims by lynch mobs and vigilantes. Can India play the international role it aspires for when the neighbourhood is chronically disturbed and the hate virus is virulent?
Hatred once unleashed is impossible to control. We are witnessing this in Ukraine where words like Neo Nazi and Genocide are being bandied by both the aggressor and the defender. In Bangladesh protestors are demanding that Pak army’s atrocities in 1971 be also designated as genocide and commemorated. What is unravelling in Myanmar and in Tigray has also been similarly labelled.
It is extremely confusing when the courts in India opine that Hate Speech if delivered with a smile can’t be considered a criminal offence!
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