With Karnataka already showing signs of a severe drought for the third year in a row and all major reservoirs in the state sounding an alarm for supplying even drinking water, a failure or delay in the South-west monsoon will be a severe blow.
South-west monsoon begins in June, when sowing of Kharif (summer) crops such as paddy are undertaken.
Skymet, a weather analytics firm in Delhi, released a report last week along the lines of the statement of Union Food Minister K V Thomas in Delhi on deficient monsoon for three southern states. The Skymet report indicated that though rainfall would be normal for a major portion of India, there were chances of less rain in two months in peninsular India. The monsoon will be normal in parts of Karnataka in June, Skymet CEO Jatin Singh told Express on Friday. However, a few parts could face deficit, according to the firm’s Foreshadow report.
“In July, it will be 10-20 per cent in excess across the state and around 30 per cent excess in some parts of North Karnataka. However, there will be a rainfall deficit of 10-25 per cent in August, while it will be normal in September,” he said.
Karnataka State Natural Disaster Management Centre Director V S Prakash said it was very early to predict the situation, but added that different models were used to arrive at the conclusions.
‘’In a week, we will be coming out with our own report for the state, with data from more observation centres than what the Indian Meteorological Department has. That will give a better perspective on the state’s weather scenario,” he said.
The deficit rainfall is likely to have a major impact on crop production.