Narendra Modi/ Amit Shah
Victory in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh will further cement the vice-like grip of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah in the party. A win in Gujarat would add to Modi’s confidence to crack down on black money and corruption. It would also spur Shah to kickstart efforts to expand the BJP footprint in regions where the party is organisationally weak.
A victory would also give the duo a measure of immunity from critics led by former Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha.
If the Gujarat verdict is not to the BJP’s liking, it would be forced to go on an overdrive to retain Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, all of which are heading for polls late next year. Since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections is just about 14 months away, the Modi regime could also come under pressure to introduce populist measures in the upcoming Budget. If the verdict is not favourable, the BJP could take a view on the continuation of CM Vijay Rupani.
Rahul Gandhi
For Rahul Gandhi who criss-crossed Gujarat to catch votes, a win or even an increase in the Congress seat tally would come as a big boost to his leadership, especially since he took charge as party president on December 16.
A win would enable Team Rahul to shut up critics -- both within and outside the party -- who say his elevation, more than being merit-based, is an obvious outcome of dynastic politics. Not just that, it would make Rahul the default claimant to the post of Opposition leader, who is expected to take on Narendra Modi in the 2019 general elections.
An average showing or a dip in the number of seats from 57 in the 2012 elections would, however, be a thorn in Rahul’s flesh and give his detractors another chance to question his elevation as Congress president.
Hardik Patel
In the unlikely event that the BJP loses Gujarat, Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti leader Hardik Patel would gain further acceptance. If he manages to dent the BJP’s Patidar vote base, he might be able to establish himself as a stronger community leader, which would force the ruling party to go in for a course correction.
Since Hardik is only 24, any significant change in the poll outcome could position him as a third force in the state, where the two-party system has had a long run. He could even consider floating a party to join hands with the Congress and jointly take on the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and, later, in the 2022 state polls.
However, if the BJP manages to hold on to the state without significant loss in strength from 2012, Hardik’s position could weaken.Since his claim to fame is his campaign for reservation for the Patidar Patels, a BJP victory could well be seen as a referendum on quota politics in the state.
Alpesh Thakore
Alpesh Thakore has positioned himself as an OBC youth leader in Gujarat. He is contesting from Radhanpur on a Congress ticket. A win from the seat, where a rebel Congress candidate is in the fray, could give him a foothold in state politics.
His pan-Gujarat following is being questioned since he could not move out of his seat for campaigning. With the Congress going through a generational leadership change in the state, Thakore has his space cut out. A Congress win could see him playing a lead role in the Gujarat Congress.
But it would take time for him to emerge as a strong anti-BJP force, given there are about 50 OBC castes in Gujarat. Thakore is a Kshatriya OBC.
Jignesh Mewani
Although Jignesh Mewani has opted to remain an Independent candidate from Vadgam constituency, albeit with Congress backing, he is known to be trying to carve a niche for himself as a Dalit leader. He has campaigned with friends from Jawaharlal Nehru University in his effort to emerge as a pan-Gujarat Dalit leader.
A BJP loss in Gujarat or any significant decline in seats could help him seal his position in state politics, since he has been running a campaign for Dalit consolidation centred on alleged violence against the community.
A BJP victory with a huge margin would, on the other hand, be seen as a rejection of the caste identity politics spearheaded by Mewani. If he fails to win Vadgam, his clout is likely to take a hit.
Further, his association with state Congress would also have to be watched as local partymen are miffed that the Vadgam seat has been handed to an outsider, though Mewani is reportedly in the good books of Rahul Gandhi, who my revamp the state unit soon.