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Exit polls go off mark with Gujarat results

Exit polls again failed to accurately predict the results of an election, this time for the Gujarat Assembly.

Published: 19th December 2017 04:11 AM  |   Last Updated: 19th December 2017 08:51 AM   |  A+A-

Express News Service

NEW DELHI: Exit polls again failed to accurately predict the results of an election, this time for the Gujarat Assembly. Most exit polls had given a clear majority to the BJP in its citadel, but various factors, including a vigorous campaign by Rahul Gandhi, resulted in the poll results going wrong.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi before entering Parliament in New Delhi on
Monday | SHEKHAR YADAV

In the case of Himachal Pradesh, the exit polls fared better, with only a couple, Chanakya and Axis, being way off the mark. Others had predicted between 42 and 50 seats for the BJP.“India’s plural demographics make it very difficult to predict election outcomes correctly. Moreover, the fear factor in the voter, to not reveal his or her non-BJP votes, has led to exit polls going wrong,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, author of the book Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times.

The poll which came closest to the results was Nirmana, which had given the BJP 104 seats and the Congress 74 in Gujarat. Chanakya, on the other hand, had predicted that the saffron outfit would win 135 seats and the Congress 47.Jai Mrug, director of Voter Mood Research, said, “There is some margin of error in exit polls, but we were more or less close to the results in Gujarat, and we predicted Himachal accurately.”

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