Annual rainfall going down but rise in short period in Kerala since 1971: Study

In a worrying trend, an analysis of rainfall period between 1901-2019 shows that annual rainfall during monsoon is decreasing but dekad rainfall causing heaving damage is on the rise. 
Fire fighters and NDRF teams are conducting a search operation at Pettimudi near Rajamala in Munnar. (Photo | EPS)
Fire fighters and NDRF teams are conducting a search operation at Pettimudi near Rajamala in Munnar. (Photo | EPS)

NEW DELHI:  Blame it on human induced climate change with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) noticing an increasing trend of heavy rainfall in dekad (10 days period) causing massive landslides and flooding in Kerala, especially eastern parts, in the month of August for the last 49 years. 

In a worrying trend, an analysis of rainfall period between 1901-2019 shows that annual rainfall during monsoon is decreasing but dekad rainfall causing heaving damage is on the rise. 

The eastern parts of the state — Kannur, Wayanad, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Palakkad and Idukki districts have reported the heaviest rainfall and landslides in the past few years.

A red alert has been issued for a few districts and many were killed in landslides due to heavy rainfall.

According to the IMD, the analysis of rainfall data of the last century indicates a significantly decreasing trend in the annual as well as southwest (SW) monsoon rainfall.

“Although rainfall in Kerala shows a decreasing trend in the SW monsoon season, two recent years (2018 and 2019) have exhibited exceptionally heavy rainfall spells (more than the annual average in many stations) of shorter duration (about 10 days) during July and August, causing damage to life and property. These extreme events are likely to be driven by anomalous atmospheric conditions due to climate variability and climate change,” said a paper published in the Current Science journal.

First dekad of August showed a significant increasing trend (95%) for the second part of the data (1971-2019) exhibiting its peak in 2019 with 127 HR events, it noted.

“Both moderate (99%) and heavy rainfall (95%) events frequency during the entire data period was seen to be significantly decreasing in Kerala. The study highlights that few areas exhibit possible disaster potential over Kerala.

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