NEW DELHI: As the race for the Rajya Sabha hots up in states, all parties across the political spectrum are finding it hard to deal with aspirations within and balance nominations.
Inter and intraparty politics are in full play, with even fringe parties and independents being intensely wooed by various political formations in states.
There are big names ‘retiring’ from the House of Elders this year, of whom, some may be re-nominated, while many are deemed ‘over the hill.’
Expectedly, a new generation crowds the party aspirant lists this year to fill in for outgoing stalwarts like Rajya Sabha Speaker Harivansh of the JD(U), Ramdas Athawale from Maharashtra and Sharad Pawar, the NCP chief.
Given the politics in states, what has always weighed more on parties’ brains trust is the real politick- which forces them to weigh candidatures and nominations in the crucible of regional and community balances, as also caste.
With nominations in cow belt states mainly balanced in the scale of caste, nominations more often also define the party’s philosophy and approach to ground politics.
Cong in focus in West-Central
The interesting factor this time in Congress states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is whether any one of them ‘can manage’ to nominate Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as an RS nominee.
The intra-state tussle for Vadra’s nomination, besides being a prestige point for the state she opts for, however, is crucial in settling the mini-power struggle’s going on between influential groups within Congress in MP and Rajasthan.
If either of these two states manages to nominate her, it would limit one or the other group significantly.
In MP, a Vadra nomination would mean a victory for CM Kamal Nath and leave just one seat between former CM Digvijaya Singh and Jyotiraditya Scindia to contest.
If she chooses Rajasthan, it would give a leg up to CM Ashok Gehlot over party president Sachin Pilot in the regional power tussle.
However, whether Vadra would be nominated at all is a decision which rests solely with the Congress Command.
In MP, otherwise, the BJP could nominate ex-CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan, with two out of three seats poised to go to the Congress with independent’s support.
In Rajasthan, the ruling Congress has 107 MLAs and BJP 72 MLAs currently.
Congress also has the support of most of the 13 Independents with 21 other MLAs. The Congress needs 102 votes to win 2 seats but BJP, with 72 MLAs can win one.
Anti-BJP front in Bengal, N-E
The Trinamool Congress is set to retain four seats and a joint candidate of either CPI(M)-Congress or the TMC-Congress will have to win the fifth one in what is bound to be an expression of anti-BJP solidarity.
With only eight MLAs, the BJP is not a contender, while in Assam, the nominations would be a test of the alliance for the BJP and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which may contest one seat each against the two vacancies.
The only point of interest is, whether Congress defectors could be nominated and whether Biswajit Daimary who retires, is re-nominated, Opposition Congress and AIUDF are likely to jointly field renowned filmmaker Jahnu Baruah, while Manipur’s K Bhabananda Singh (BJP) and Meghalaya’s Wansuk Syiem (Congress) are also likely to be re-nominated.
Even fight in Maharashtra
In Maharashtra, against 7 vacant seats, BJP can manage to hold on to 3 seats, with one seat each going to MVA constituents and one being jointly nominated by MVA.
NDA ally Athawale is likely to be repeated with Udayan Raje Bhosale as a likely BJP candidate.
NCP chief Sharad Pawar is a surety for re-nomination, with one of Congress’ Rajeev Satav or Sushil Kumar Shinde and Shiv Sena going with Priyanka Chaturvedi.
Caste factor in East-Central
In Bihar, where five seats are falling vacant, there are strong contenders like NK Singh, RJD leader Rabri Devi and Raghuvansh Prasad Singh in the fray.
While JD(U) and BJP control 124 seats with LJP, the RJD, Congress combine with 109, can swing two seats.
While Harivansh could be re-nominated, a lone seat would be toss-up between contending castes and strong JD(U)-BJP contenders, while the last would see a tough fight.
In Jharkhand, BJP has to stand a fire-test and its success in getting at least one nominee elected rests on an erstwhile ally, the AJSU in a House, where it has 26 seats with Babulal Marandi’s joining, yet needs more.