NEW DELHI: The rate at which COVID-19 is transmitted is down to 1.27 in India, significantly lower than in March, but researchers fear the gain may be lost in coming days due to relaxations in lockdown.
On Sunday morning, the total number of confirmed cases stood at 39,980, with an increase of 2,644 new cases — the highest for a day so far. The doubling rate of active cases stands at 12 days. But researchers at ISM, Chennai found that the rising number of cases through April point to an effective Reproduction Number (R0) of 1.27, way lower than 1.83 in March.
An R0 of 1.27 indicates that 100 infected people will infect 127 others during the period of their infection. Though lower, this number is still very high and might continue to cause almost “exponential” rise in cases, researchers warned. “This R value could suggest substantial growth in new cases,” said Sitabhra Sinha of ISM.