NEW DELHI: While it may still be long before Covid-19 ceases to be major public health concern, the pandemic does seem to have slowed down in India suggesting that the country may have already reached at least the first peak. A look at the infection and death curve since last few weeks shows the active as well as the daily cases detected are registering a swift decline.
Between September 9 and 15, for example, 92,839 new cases were being recorded every day on an average which came down to 70,114 between October 7 and 13. The number of active cases, too, after reaching a peak of 10,17,754 on September 18, have been declining and stood at 8,12,390 on Thursday, as per the data released by Union health ministry . The case doubling time has increased to 72.8 days from 25.5 days in mid-August.
Another positive trend is the decline in number of daily deaths. On September 29, while India registered 1,179 Covid-19 deaths within a span of 24 hours, the daily fatality count has been under 800 for last three days. On Thursday, the country recorded 680 deaths in a 24-hour period, the lowest since July 27.
The improved scenario is largely owing to the slowed pace of the pandemic in some of the worst-hit states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
The situation, however, may be worsening in some states, such as Kerala, where earlier the Covid curve was believed to have plateaued. While some experts feel the country just may have a prolonged first wave peaking at different times in different parts, others don’t rule out the possibility of the disease coming back with a vengeance. “India is a large country with huge population migration and it is likely to have first waves in different parts before the situation stabilises,” said epidemiologist Dr Amitav Banerjee.
Dr Arvinder Singh Soin, senior doctor and researcher with Medanta hospital in Gurugram, pointed out that 20-50% of the urban population may have already been infected. “The curve of the first wave has probably peaked out and is now declining but we must continue masking and social distancing,” he said, adding that the upcoming festive season, opening of schools and colleges, winter and pollution may cause another surge. “We cannot open out completely to force herd immunity,” Dr Soin said.
“This could cost thousands of lives. But it does seem likely that once 60-70% population is exposed to Covid through natural infection or vaccination, the disease could subside.” Some others said since there is no clarity on number of rapid antigen test versus RT-PCR tests carried out, the numbers could be misleading. “With over-reliance on antigen tests, counts can go down to a level which we have witnessed over last few weeks, but infections are not going to stop with this strategy,” said epidemiologist Dr P K Tyagi. Public health researcher Oommen C Kurian said more waves were likely. “In festival season and winter, cases may surge in many states. Reducing death rate will have to be the only aim.”
PM reviews vaccine development status
New Delhi: PM Narendra Modi on Thursday reviewed the status of Covid-19 vaccine development and their possible distribution planning, once they prove to be efficacious. The government, in a statement said that various mechanisms for adequate procurement, and technologies for bulk-stockpiling, filling vials for distribution and ensuring effective delivery were discussed. The PM appreciated the efforts made by Indian vaccine developers to rise to the Covid-19 challenge, and committed to continue government support.