Third Covid wave in India likely only in small pockets with low exposure, think experts

Virologist T Jacob John said estimates showing big Covid numbers in coming weeks may be reflecting only 'fear and speculation', rather than basing projections on a scientific model.
A health worker administers the vaccine for COVID-19 during a vaccination drive in Ahmedabad. (Photo | AP)
A health worker administers the vaccine for COVID-19 during a vaccination drive in Ahmedabad. (Photo | AP)

NEW DELHI:  Scientists and biostatisticians are rushing to prepare mathematical models for a possible third wave of Covid-19 in India, but most epidemiologists and public health specialists reckon that surges may only happen in pockets rather than hitting the country in one go.

Panels of experts, including the one under National Institute of Disaster Management and another under the department of biotechnology, have predicted a possible third wave in September-October with a large number of daily cases.

Virologists think India is likely to see outbreaks in small pockets at one time in areas and communities with low levels of exposure, even though 30,000-50,000 daily cases could continue to be reported.

Virologist T Jacob John said estimates showing big Covid numbers in coming weeks may be reflecting only “fear and speculation”, rather than basing projections on a scientific model.

“As per data available, while nearly 40 crore Indians may still be susceptible to Covid-19 infection, I see little chance of a major wave even if there is a new variant, which is more transmissible than the Delta variant,” he said.

John argued that his understanding was based on the premise that for a major wave, a large population in a defined geography needs to be infection-naïve.

“However, this is a new virus about which our understanding is evolving and I may be wrong.”

Epidemiologist and health systems expert Chandrakant Lahariya said India may not have a large-scale national wave, adding that any subsequent wave would be localised. “I would argue that rather than thinking when and at what scale the subsequent wave could appear, our approach should be to prepare each and every Indian state,” he said.

Lahariya, however, felt it is difficult to predict which state will be affected more, but added that states with weak laboratory and public health networks and disease surveillance systems are at higher risk.

“This is because by the time transmission has peaked in the state, it could be a long delay. It is also time that we use every possible data source, triangulate it, and put our best disease modeller for developing projections on the trajectory of cases for every district in India,” he said.

“That’s how we can be better prepared to respond.”

According to public health researcher Oommen C Kurian, with schools reopening, states which have shown relatively low vaccine and natural infection-induced seroprevalence may see an increase in cases.

However, many states which have shown lower seroprevalence, have either covered the vulnerable population with vaccines like Kerala, or have a high proportion of young population such as Jharkhand and Assam. “Unless a new variant attacks, mortality levels should remain low,” he said.

States asked to vaccinate school staff

NEW DELHI: The Centre on Tuesday asked the states to design a roadmap at district levels for vaccination of all teaching and non-teaching staff, as schools have reopened in most of the states amid concerns of a third wave.

In a meeting with states, Union school education secretary Anita Karwal said National Disaster Management Authority protocols should be followed.

Over 1 crore vaccinations achieved again

NEW DELHI: India administered nearly 1.1 crore doses of Covid-19 vaccines on Tuesday, the highest single-day vaccinations so far, repeating a feat of over one crore jabs in a day three days after achieving it first.

According to Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandwiya, over 1.09 crore doses were administered till 6 pm on Tuesday. The count was expected to go up further.

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