The Union government is gearing up to conduct the country’s population census in 2027, following a 16-year gap. For the first time since independence, a caste census will also be undertaken alongside the general census.
Veteran economist and former Chief Statistician of India (CSI) Pronab Sen tells Preetha Nair that to carry out the delimitation exercise and implement the much-anticipated Women’s Reservation Bill, the government must evolve a political consensus and consult the states. Excerpts:
The 2027 population census will enumerate caste for the first time. How challenging would it be?
The population census must be conducted within a short timeframe, ideally in two weeks. The caste census will also have to be completed in that period. The reason is that people keep moving in the country. Therefore, if the population census is not conducted within a short time, there will be double counting. Out here, all they will be able to ask is just the caste, no further details.
There is no time for a comprehensive caste census. In 2011, the UPA government conducted a Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC). The survey was comprehensive, gathering data on the socio-economic and caste status of households. It was done separately from the census and took 7-8 months. I don’t think the government has time for a detailed one. However, the government has yet to clarify how it will do so.
The MHA has said that the census will be conducted through digital means, using mobile applications, and self-enumeration. Will it lead to data inaccuracy?
Self-enumeration is a hybrid system in which some individuals self-enumerate while enumerators cover the remainder. That leads to gaps or double counting. Earlier, the enumerators would have a map of the area they cover. They would visit every building and request people’s details. Thus, nobody was excluded, and there was no overlap. The self-enumeration option opens up the possibility of double counting. The question is how you avoid that.
The government has shown its eagerness to carry out a delimitation exercise after the census. How soon will it happen?
The whole process is frozen till 2026. The reference date for the census is March 2027, and the government is expected to have the data by 2028. But it is entirely up to the government to carry out delimitation or not. There must be a political consensus, and all states must come on board. States play a key role because everything depends on how the states react.
The southern states fear that delimitation will reduce their representation in Parliament. Are their concerns valid?
Now, there will be even more states who share the same concern. All the states which have seen a sharp reduction in their population growth will complain. When delimitation occurs, the percentage of seats will decrease. The government must take them on board and come up with a formula acceptable to everyone.
You can do delimitation in two ways. One way to say this is that we fix the number of people per parliamentary seat. Determine the number of parliamentary seats based on the population. The second is that they can adjust the number of parliamentary seats and redraw the boundaries so that each constituency has roughly the same number of people.
Can the Women’s Reservation Bill be implemented before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections?
It was unanimously passed by Parliament in 2024. The question is which seats will get reserved after delimitation and what are the principles for reservation. You must have a principle behind it, and all parties must agree. I don’t think that has been discussed yet.