The elections are over in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh and it is time to get on with governance. I think the match was a draw as Narendra Modi won a record third term. Besides calling and paying his respects to his mother, he also called on Keshubhai Patel. This was politically correct, and I think you will see the softer side of the chief minister as the battle has been won. This was a high-profile campaign; the hype had created an expectation level of 130-140 seats as it is always difficult to predict the upside.
The Congress fought hard with its limited resources. The lesson on past trends is that if a state is lost twice, then it is difficult to control the decline; this is the fifth straight loss for the Congress. The question is what tactics will Modi deploy now? I think he will adopt a step-by-step approach and will perhaps visit a few states to make his presence felt. He may well visit Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. There is little time left for 2014 and the BJP cannot have a vacancy at the top as Nitin Gadkari is ‘wounded’ and needs rest. Unless the structure is clear, the victory in Gujarat will be restricted to the state. There will be reactions to Modi but a record third term cannot be ignored. The loss in Himachal Pradesh indicates that the anti-incumbency trend persists and the BJP will thus be under pressure in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka.
Himachal Pradesh is a decisive victory for the Congress. It is no secret that internal battles had wrecked the situation and only intervention by the Congress president resulted in Virbhadra Singh taking charge of the campaign. Sheila Dikshit was inducted to look at the lists. All these were last-minute positives and the electoral battle was never expected to be easy as BJP leader Prem Kumar Dhumal was an experienced political hand with a good record. I think he was defeated by internal pressures and the fact that BJP rebels won four seats as independents shows that all was not well in the BJP.
There will be the usual post-mortems on both states, but a win is a win. What does this show for the future? My assessment is that this has been, in cricketing terms, a ‘draw’ and it is clear that for all elections in 2013 and 2014 there will be very strong anti-incumbency trends. My assessment is that the Congress with 140 seats and the BJP with 130 seats projected for 2014 have a great deal of work to do in the next six-nine months. The Congress has done its mid-term surgery in government and got a team ready for 2014, while the BJP still has a ‘vacancy’ at the top. I still feel that a change is necessary and they may well think of someone from Bihar to lead the party for tactical reasons. Ravi Shankar Prasad, Rajiv Pratap Rudy are former Union ministers, and are good candidates.
The Congress will battle for honours in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh; the anti-incumbency trend will hurt the BJP, while in Rajasthan and Delhi, the Congress will feel the pressure. In Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, the advantage could well be with the regional parties. Again I see a ‘draw’ between the two. The alliances that both parties forge for 2014 will be crucial.
I am being repetitive but the Third Front can win 260-270 seats, with 40-odd parties and three separate groups in this number. In theory, we could have a mess on our hands but I suspect this will not happen as much can happen in a year.
The results in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh were being followed closely by all regional parties and both were looking for positives and negatives. A ‘draw’ suits all those who are looking for elections in 2014 on schedule. The AIADMK and the Akali Dal would have liked early elections but show no signs of anti-incumbency as both lack a viable political challenge. The problem will be with the TMC that is desperate for an early election and it will be difficult for Mamata Banerjee to survive without losses for the next year. Politics never takes a vacation and every election now will have a strong anti-incumbency factor.
arunnehru89@yahoo.in
Nehru is a former Union minister
