Central Asia once again managed to garner some attention of the Indian foreign policy establishment with the visit of external affairs minister Salman Khurshid to Krygyzstan where he attended the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) and to Uzbekistan where he met with its foreign minister Abdulaziz Kamilov. At the SCO, Khurshid underscored New Delhi’s desire to seek full member status of the six-nation grouping and made it clear that India remains keen to deepen security-related co-operation with it, particularly with the SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS). India is willing to sign the Model Protocol of Intent in the near future as a demonstration of its commitment.
Given the rapidly evolving security situation, Khurshid linked developments in Afghanistan to the need for a pan-regional effort in managing the negative externalities cropping up there. He said, “India strongly believes that Afghanistan can successfully complete the security, political and economic transitions in coming years and regain its historical place as a hub for regional trade and transit routes.” He added, “However, this presupposes fulfillment of pledges made by the international community for security and civilian assistance to Afghanistan and non-interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs. We see SCO as an important body that can offer a credible alternative regional platform to discuss the challenges related to Afghanistan.”
India has long wanted to play a larger role in the SCO and has been seeking support from individual member states for quite some time. However, New Delhi has not been successful in achieving an upgrade in its observer status. The organisation has failed to achieve a consensus on India’s role in the grouping. It is not very difficult to see why. China remains reluctant to see India as a full member of the group despite its official rhetoric to the contrary. The SCO was founded in Shanghai in 2001 by the presidents of Russia, China, Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. India was admitted as an observer at the 2005 Astana Summit along with Iran and Pakistan. Though the 2010 Tashkent Summit lifted the moratorium on new membership, India’s role in the grouping remains a marginal one.
This makes it imperative for India to develop strong bilateral partnerships in the region but New Delhi’s efforts have been lacklustre. In this context, Khurshid’s trip to Uzbekistan was important as it led to a potential pact on the import of over 2,000 tonnes of uranium by 2014, much like the one India has signed with Kazakhstan as well as the possibility of extending the Friendship Railway Bridge to Herat in western Afghanistan. But these nascent efforts won’t be enough if India wants to raise its profile in the region.
Major powers have competed for influence in Central Asia since the 19th century. The “Great Game” seems to be back with a bang. The importance of the SCO that has evolved into a forum for discussion on regional security and economic issues cannot be overstated. It has become even more important post-9/11, because growing ethnic nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism is a major cause of concern for Russia, China and Central Asian states. Russia and China have been successful in using the strong aversion of the US to terrorism after September 11 for their own ends to tackle Islamic insurgency within their territories. In the post-9/11 environment, the SCO serves as a means to keep control of Central Asia and limit US influence in the region.
India’s growing interests in Central Asia are well-recognised. There is a growing convergence between the US and Indian interests, especially their reluctance to see the region fall under the exclusive influence of Russia or China. India was worried in the 1990s when Russian influence weakened substantially with a commensurate rise in that of China’s. This negatively impacted upon Indian threat perceptions that stabilised only after the growing US presence since 2001.
India views itself as a stabiliser and security provider in Central Asia and with its growing economic clout in recent years, an attractive economic power. India’s interest in securing reliable energy supplies and trade through Central Asia remains substantial. There is a seamless logical web from the objective of ensuring Central Asian stability and our voice there to the conclusion that India must also ensure reliable energy access to oil and gas sources in Central Asia.
The requirements of energy security also postulate a continuing positive relationship with Moscow and friendly ties with all the Central Asian states. India must create firm ties among the energy exporting states of Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and, if possible, Turkmenistan. Moreover, the imperatives of getting Afghanistan right are stronger than ever when the situation is fast deteriorating. Regional powers, barring China, have recognised this reality and have sought to harness India towards achieving common goals. Russia, for example, supports Indian membership in the SCO and has talked about the possibility of India participating in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.
But India has so far failed to invest the diplomatic capital that the region demands. India tried to open an air facility in Ayni, Tajikistan, in 2002 to guard against growing instability though nothing much happened on that front for long. And in 2010 the Tajik government officially made it clear that Russia is the only country likely to use the airbase in the future.
A great power competition in Central Asia will make it harder for India to pursue its interests. As such, it becomes imperative for Indian diplomacy to work towards major power co-operation to bring some measure of stability to Afghanistan as well as the larger Central Asian region. This region remains critical for India’s security and energy needs. India’s lacklustre approach so far has made sure that its imprint will only reduce in the coming years if immediate ameliorative steps are not taken. It should be instructive that Chinese premier Xi Jinping, too, undertook a whirlwind tour of the region last week, signing mega energy deals and promising major investments. With China being the largest trading partner of four of the five regional states, India increasingly looks like a pigmy. Khurshid’s visit should not be a one-off event; rather it should be the start of New Delhi trying to develop robust partnerships throughout the region even without a full membership in the SCO.
The author is a reader in international relations, department of defence studies, King’s College, London.
E-mail: harsh.pant@kcl.ac.uk