Floods, landslides and deaths: A new monsoon normal for Kerala?

A once-in-a-100-year phenomenon cannot possibly occur again in just under a year.
Kerala floods: An image from the aerial survey conducted by CM Pinarayi Vijayan and team.
Kerala floods: An image from the aerial survey conducted by CM Pinarayi Vijayan and team.

A once-in-a-100-year phenomenon cannot possibly occur again in just under a year. But it did. People of Kerala who bought into their government’s explanation of last year’s deluge, that it was an extremely rare occurrence, can await another explanation for what’s currently happening in the state — severe flooding and landslides that have affected 12 of 14 districts. And that will be valid till the next disaster strikes — maybe as early as next year itself.

As many as 433 people died in the August 2018 floods. About 14 lakh people were evacuated, and the government estimated the financial losses at `27,000 crore and the cost of reconstruction at `31,000 crore. This time, the toll has already crossed 70, many are missing, 2.5 lakh people are in relief camps and more troubles are in store as another bout of heavy rain is expected in the next few days.

Not too long ago, monsoon was something Keralites waited for — a season they enjoyed and celebrated. No longer. The fear of rains is real, and Kerala’s inability to handle a heavy spell is apparent. The transformation of Kerala from a rain-happy state to a rain-disaster state is a shocking story of poor planning and administration, unsustainable development, rapid destruction of nature and a greedy and uncaring society comprising politicians, officials, business people and common folks. It’s about how a resource-rich state was destroyed, and is being turned unlivable. And it’s a story that policymakers don’t want to hear.

While the scale of disaster this year cannot be compared to that of last year, the tragedy is no less distressing. At Puthumala in Wayanad district, an entire village was wiped out when part of the hill came crashing down. A similar incident at Kavalappara in Malappuram district buried at least 65 people. On Sunday, when rain eased a bit and rescue operation resumed, a crowd gathered around the spot. With a stoic expression, people watched as rescuers sifted through the debris, occasionally bringing out a body. They knew that their dear ones are somewhere under the pile of mud, with little chance of them being brought out alive.

At Thottamon, near Ranny in Pathanamthitta district, Ajayan Pillai and his family haven’t slept the last few nights, fearful of the nearby Pamba river rising and swallowing their home, like it did in 2018. The 43-year-old currently-unemployed bus conductor is struggling to put his life back on track and can’t imagine going through another disaster. Though he lost all his belongings, `10,000 was all he got as compensation. For about 100 families living in the area, one of the worst-affected in last year’s calamity, the fear of flood is more real than ever. There has been no flooding this year, but they know anything can happen anytime. The story is the same for lakhs of others who lost people close to them, had to abandon their homes and watched as their precious belongings were swept away.

The increasing rain-induced disasters in Kerala can be partly attributed to a shift in weather pattern due to global climatic changes. The monsoon is now marked by short spells of heavy rain separated by long dry periods, unlike earlier when the rainfall was more or less evenly spread across the season. For example, the state received 758.6 mm between August 1 and 19 last year — 164% above normal. On Thursday, when the Puthumala and Kavalappara landslides happened, some areas received up to 400 mm of rain in a day. While climate change is a factor, what’s also hurting Kerala is its decreasing capacity to handle rain. Quarrying, sand mining, destruction of forests, construction activities and encroachment of water bodies have reduced the land’s capacity to absorb water and destroyed the natural drainage systems.

If last year there were 341 landslides, there have been 80 in the first two days of the current spell of rain. Those in power may not agree but rain disasters could be a new normal for Kerala — a new monsoon normal.

Kiran Prakash
Resident Editor, Kerala
kiranprakash@newindianexpress.com

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