The ugly truth about avoidable wars

From the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine around two weeks ago, two million people have become refugees.
For representational purposes (Soumyadip Sinha | Express Illustrations)
For representational purposes (Soumyadip Sinha | Express Illustrations)

From the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine around two weeks ago, two million people have become refugees. Cities after cities have been attacked with a brutality that defies human imagination. Be it schools, hospitals or nuclear facilities, none has been spared and more could be hit in the coming days. The irony in this situation is that Ukraine voluntarily gave up its nuclear capability for sovereignty, freedom and peace at the behest of Russia and the US. If today Kyiv had nuclear capability, Russia would not have dared to attack.

Ukraine is generally a tolerant nation. The whole problem arose for two reasons: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wanted to join NATO, which was totally unacceptable to Putin as he feared that the military alliance would come dangerously close to Moscow. Putin’s fear was not entirely unjustified since it is a fact that NATO forces had moved closer to the Russian border and beefed up their presence with more men and ammunition. The second reason, which is the deeper issue, is that Putin, who started his career as a KGB officer, always wanted a United USSR. He dreams of slowly taking over the breakaway nations and creating an undivided USSR as it used to be. In his mind, Ukraine is not a separate nation but a part of the erstwhile USSR. It is clear that Putin won’t stop even if he conquers Ukraine; he will want to annex other border countries as well.

For the Russian president, Ukraine was a pilot to see what the US, UK, EU and NATO can do. It is relatively clear to him that they will not get into an open battle with Moscow, to avoid a third world war. The Western countries also don’t want to get entangled in a war and spend lots of money. While NATO definitely had instigated Ukraine to openly defy Putin, they are now clearly not prepared to help Kyiv through air or ground support. Now, it seems to be clear to the Ukrainian president and his associates that NATO is a mirage. Zelenskyy’s move to announce that his country will not join the military alliance should cool things down and hopefully put an end to the war, saving millions of lives in Ukraine.

On the other hand, Russia needs to understand that it is not only destroying Ukraine but also shattering its own economy. The US, UK and EU have pressed such harsh sanctions that it is going to have a huge impact on Moscow’s economy. It is true that Russia has good reserves, but how long can that last given the prolonged nature of the aftereffects of the war? Putin is aware that previous US presidents, George W Bush and Barack Obama, wanted to reset Washington’s relations with Russia for economic reasons, and therefore, he probably feels that this episode of sanctions will not last long enough. This scenario is perhaps making him apathetic to sanctions.

In the end, be it Russia or the US, wars are needed to sell huge amounts of ammunition that run the economic engine of many countries. The refugees from these wars are those with the least negotiating power, and therefore, they can be paid the lowest wages and made to work the hardest. Many capitalists thrive in such a situation.

Even though the state-run media in Russia is trying to brainwash the people and stop them from seeing the news broadcast in the international media, in today’s digital and web-based world, that is nearly impossible. One can reduce media getting into the house, but can’t stop it. Many Russians have connections, be it family or friends, in Ukraine and do not want a war. President Putin may not realise it, but his equity has nosedived as much as the Russian economy.

Russia also needs to understand that the common citizens of Ukraine, for the first time, have lifted arms to stop Moscow’s march into their country. Putin had thought that he could capture Ukraine in just a few days.

However, today, even after around two weeks from the start of the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian army and civilians are fighting valiantly. The whole world is in praise of their courage, patriotism and commitment to die for their nation.

Even if Russia conquers Ukraine, the hatred for the former from the citizens of the latter will not vanish. There will be large protests, guerilla warfare and the rise of insurgency to fight against the Russian army. It will prove to be very costly for Moscow to maintain an army and control the hostile citizens. It is indeed unfortunate that NATO, which egged President Zelenskyy to defy Russia, today is only supporting Ukraine with arms and ammunition and is unwilling to provide air support or put boots on the ground. It is not possible for Ukraine, a small country, no matter how brave its people are, to defeat Russia on its own. These wars also increase climate change, destroy the ecology and the environment apart from killing thousands of people.

Ashoke K Maitra

Founder, Sri Ramakrishna International Institute of Management (SRIIOM)

(ashoke.maitra@gmail.com)

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The New Indian Express
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