When I was working as cabinet secretary, then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would insist on me meeting him one-on-one at least once a week. He would express annoyance in his gentle way if I missed a week. Each time I met him, he would begin with the question, "What is the state of the nation?" I would brief him on internal security, left-wing extremism, administration, events of note and, primarily, the state of the economy. His mind was focused principally on the economy and administration.
If I am asked this question now, what would be my answer? I would say the level of hatred and divisiveness in society has gone down a tad but still simmers, and we are sitting indisputably on top of a volcano. I would say that the income pyramid is still skewed, with billionaires getting richer and the middle classes, lower-income groups and destitute still deprived of hope.
Economic policy is designed for the very rich. I would inform him that the states are of the opinion that the Centre is expropriating a humongous portion of the national resources and that Finance Commission recommendations are cleverly bypassed.
Yet, the country has undergone a sea change during the year. In the first part of the year, the expectation was that Modi and his government would ride back to power on the back of a similar majority as in 2014 and 2019, perhaps even more substantial.
I recall a luncheon at the Civil Services Officers’ Institute in Delhi, where I expressed hope that there would be a balance in parliament after the election and that there would be no overwhelming majority. A colleague who had strayed into politics told me the BJP would come back to power with a similar, if not greater, majority. A friend who attended the temple inauguration at Ayodhya wrote that the election is done and dusted, and the ballot box was only a formality.
This did not appear to be beyond reason as the opposition started at sixes and sevens, attempted to unite, then lost interest after the Congress, following the Karnataka election, decided they had it in them to win on their own. After resounding defeats in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, they came back to the concept of the INDI Alliance.
The election campaign was one in which abusive language was freely used, unlike most past elections. Muslims were called infiltrators, threatening the security of the sisters and daughters of voters. They were said to produce "more children", which would reduce Hindus to a minority. It was said the Ram temple at Ayodhya would be brought down with a bulldozer and a non-BJP government would give priority to Muslims, even in sports. The expression ‘termites’ was used to describe refugees from Bangladesh.
Hatred also spewed out from the other side. In the 2019 election, ‘chowkidar chor hai’ was the slogan of the Congress. In this year's election, the tone was different, with the opposition stating they represented ‘mohabbat ki dukaan’ while the BJP stood for ‘nafrat ki dukaan’. At the same time, caste became a point of division.
Today, divisions continue on many fronts, accentuated by violent language in social media. The difference lies in the patch-up that has been effected between the BJP and its parent organisation, the RSS. The RSS felt sidelined in the first part of the year, with the BJP president even saying they could work on their own now and the RSS, an ideological front, was not necessary to the same extent as in the past.
The RSS had not favoured the agglomeration of power in the hands of the Centre and the indiscriminate use of bulldozers and the ED, CBI and NIA. They feared the possibility of civil war and the disintegration of India. The narrow margin with which the Centre has to work and its dependence on other parties to manage parliament has made the BJP more accommodating. The victory in Haryana probably signals a detente between the parent and its offspring. The results of the Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections could well be the process of consolidation or destabilisation.
However, there are many points of division still lurking. Manipur remains unsolved, with the Kuki-Meitei divide—also a Hindu-Christian divide—becoming increasingly intractable. The One Nation One Election concept and the Waqf Bill may be highly controversial. Parliamentary delimitation, which will follow the census, will create divides in both alliances. UP and Bihar will want delimitation to Increase their political strength, while Andhra, the entire South and East will oppose it strongly. We can expect a replay of the language agitations of the 60s if delimitation is pushed through.
On the economic front, the focus on GDP and per capita incomes, disregarding other human development indicators, can lead to policy formulations that will sharply increase inequalities. India's GDP reached $1 trillion in 2010, $2 trillion in 2017 and $3 trillion in 2020. In due course, it will reach $5 trillion and beyond, but if a few share $4.8 trillion and the rest share the remainder, it is by no means an indication of prosperity.
We need what we may call ‘economic democracy’, focusing on the well-being of our entire population rather than the continuous enrichment of a select few. This would require a shift in our thinking—from per capita incomes and GDP as indicators of growth to human development indicators. The 16th Finance Commission will have to look carefully at the needs of the states, suggest a mechanism for ensuring their recommendations on vertical devolution are adhered to without deviation by the Centre, and change the parameters for horizontal devolution so that the division of resources among states is fairer.
In foreign relations, we are striving to be recognised as great global leaders and solve disputes abroad, but SAARC, which contains our closest neighbours, is still in a coma. Now that J&K elections have been held and democracy has been partially restored, this is probably the time for a revival of SAARC and SAFTA and mutual discussions, which will strengthen us on the economic front too.
Helmsmanship of the highest quality is needed to steer our nation through troubled waters ahead.
(Views are personal)
K M Chandrasekhar | Former Cabinet Secretary and author of As Good as My Word: A Memoir