The Indian voter has again asserted that the ‘local’ is central in electoral politics. One of the biggest lessons from the year-end polls and bypolls was about incumbency—a party or candidate loses an election more than someone else wins it. This was true across the board: ruling regimes held their own turfs.
In Maharashtra, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi and its three principal constituents lost, as did the BJP in Jharkhand in its attempts to make forays into the tribal heartland. The byelections, too, saw a concerted effort by those in the opposition to embarrass the ruling parties, but failed to strike a chord that would be heard around the country.
In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party surrendered the momentum it had gained in the Lok Sabha polls to the BJP. The ruling coalition held its own in Bihar, too. Similarly, in the six seats in West Bengal, the BJP was not able to offer a reasonable challenge to the Trinamool Congress in spite of the many embarrassments for the ruling party since the Lok Sabha polls.
The sweep by the ruling Congress in the Karnataka byelections is another clear example of the opposition, the BJP-JDS alliance, not being able to hold the government to account. In deciding so, the state threw up some bigger questions for the future.
But first, let’s set the context. The three seats fought for were in different regions of the state and held by three parties— the BJP, Congress and JDS. The byelections were triggered when the sitting MLAs moved to the Lok Sabha earlier this year. Two of those vacating their assembly seats were former chief ministers. Those nominated to contest the bypolls were close to the families of those stepping down—sons in two cases and the wife in the third. The grip of political dynasties across parties in Karnataka was there for all to see.
Now, given that bypolls are largely governed by factors unique to each seat, it may be a stretch for the Congress to conclude that it’s a mandate for the ruling party. Any overconfidence, especially when the state government’s term is nearing the half-way mark, would be counterproductive and politically naïve. Rather, it should be seen as an opportunity to invest time and attention on the bread-and-butter issues of governance—proper implementation of the five guarantees and mobilisation of fiscal resources.
On the other hand, the BJP’s defeat in Shiggaon in Kittur and the inability of the JDS to hold on to Channapatna in Old Mysore have serious implications for the alliance, as well as the internal dynamics of the two parties.
In Channapatna, the JDS was unable to ensure the victory of a key member of the Gowda family—Nikhil Gowda, son of Union minister H D Kumaraswamy, who had vacated the seat. This is Nikhil’s third successive electoral defeat.
A post-poll survey done by Lokniti CSDS along with the Public Policy Centre of the NM Institute of Technology in Bengaluru indicated what contributed to the result.
The BJP has a very small vote base in this constituency. Half that base voted for the Congress because of C P Yogeshwara, the BJP leader who moved to the Congress after being denied the ticket. Secondly, two-thirds of the voters saw it as a proxy battle between D K Shivakumar and H D Kumaraswamy—their old rivalry once again came to the fore.
Thirdly, though a majority of the Vokkaliga votes went to the JDS, a significant chunk also went to the Congress candidate. The Congress also consolidated the non-Vokkaliga OBCs, and the Dalit, tribal as well as the crucial Muslim vote. Finally, the survey also indicated a strong support for the ruling party on account of the five guarantees being implemented.
Internal contradictions within the state BJP affected the other two outcomes. The open rebellion by senior leaders against the state leadership has created quite a few political ripples, as was evident in both Shiggaon and Sandur. The BJP campaign was not as focused and energetic as it normally is. Leaders appeared to have used these byelections to settle political scores and protect their small zones of control.
An element of complacency in Shiggaon—that it’s the turf of former Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai—also queered the pitch for the BJP.
Sandur in central Karnataka has been a Congress bastion and never been won by the BJP. So, the BJP’s spirited fight here was not strong enough to oust the entrenched party. However, the seat saw the Congress winning by the smallest margin of the state’s three seats.
These byelections raise questions about the health of the Karnataka BJP unit, a badly divided house. At the winter session of the assembly, one will look closely at the capacity of the BJP legislative party to work together and craft a strategy to challenge the government. One has not seen it in the previous sessions. The ruling party has got away mildly for many a political misstep.
Questions are also being raised about the future of the BJP-JDS alliance. Even though the BJP got most of the Lok Sabha seats from Karnataka, there is a growing perception that it is the JDS minister Kumaraswamy who has a greater say at the Centre from among the state leaders. If this perception were to grow, it would raise serious questions on the ability of the BJP to take on the Congress in the state.
For the JDS, the setback should prod it to relook at its strategy of giving primacy to one family at the cost of loyal party workers. The party would also need to assess if its vote base is being gradually eroded, especially in the Old Mysore region and whether the BJP is a key beneficiary of that shift.
Looking back at all of 2024, we can surely say the year has seen some tantalising electoral contests. What was decidedly certain about each verdict was its mind-boggling uncertainty. Maybe it’s a cue to rethink the logic of one nation, one election.
(Views are personal)
Sandeep Shastri
National Coordinator of Lokniti Network
Director (academics) at NITTE Education Trust, and co-editor, Electoral Dynamics in the States of India